Rain is coming…

We’ve got a dynamic and likely quite wet spell of weather coming up. This animation shows the weather forecast for the next 10 days – you can see that once the change moves through on Wednesday we get into a pattern of onshore winds with showers and longer spells of rain:

There could be some decent falls coming up – but this event will likely be categorised by how long it lasts rather than a huge fall on one day. The accumulated rainfall for the next 10 days shows it well, with the totals increasing day by day rather than a huge fall on any one day:

I’ve selected late next week to show some of the totals forecast by the models. You can see it more dramatically in these forecast rain totals from ECMWF:

…and GFS:

Both show some BIG totals looking likely…but don’t focus on the numbers – more on the indication of wet weather ahead and some decent rain totals likely, which over a week or so could accumulate into some higher end totals by the time it clears through. Usually when we see these totals forecast it is from an event lasting a couple of days – and over a short period of time such totals would likely bring some flooding. With this event forecast to last for a significant period of time it means the ground has more time to absorb the rain, meaning lower fast river rises…but also worth noting that a couple of models show a low forming offshore across SE Qld or NE NSW – and if that happened we could see some bigger totals if it formed just to our north.

Before we kick off the rain we’ve got another two days of storms likely. Some around today, much as yesterday, but a significant increase likely tomorrow as the change moves up and turns winds more onshore. The forecast temps over the next 10 days show it well – much higher daytime peaks forecast today and tomorrow, with much lower totals to follow as cloud and showers increase and winds turn more onshore:

So an interesting spell of weather coming up. I’ll post more, both here and on the Facebook page, as we head into it.

Gratitude: Many thanks as always to weather.us and tropicaltibdits for the charts and images.

Chance of storms then cooler

We’ve got a warm day today, with temps heading up towards 30C:

Once again this is ahead of a cool change which will move through overnight. That change moving up will likely trigger some storms over the ranges to our west through this afternoon. Those storms will then move south east towards the coast. We’re at the edge of the risk area with most storms likely to our south and west, but still a chance we’ll see something kick off. Storm forecast for today like this – you can see how close to the edge we sit with storms much more likely inland and to our south:

After that change moves through tomorrow looks a LOT cooler with the chance of showers – a completely different day to today. Here’s forecast max temps for tomorrow afternoon:

Once we move through tomorrow we’ve got another few drier and sunnier days coming up again, though this time we’re unlikely to see so much of the warmer weather before the next change moves through on Monday. That next change will combine with some decent cold air up high to increase instability and the chance of showers and storms. Total forecast rain over the next 8 days looks like this:

…however some models are showing totals higher than those shown here. With the cold air up high the potential for higher rain totals and a more dynamic surface pattern are certainly there – I’ll post more over the weekend.  Beyond that it looks like a similar pattern ahead – changes coming through but with the ongoing risk of showers and storms, so dry at times but by no means dry right though.

Storms possible today, then drier again…

Some weather news and weather station updates…

The weather station is getting some much deserved TLC. There are two parts broken on the station and both spare parts are ordered and should be here within a week. Davis Instruments are aware how much the station is used in Bellingen so are rushing replacements to us. The river and rain pages are still up and running, using data fed in from the BoM.

The webcam is getting some love as well – expect to see some improvements on the page over the next week.

The weather today – actually a chance of some storms this arvo, mainly on the hills but potentially making it down into the valleys as well…with a chance of a shower or storm closer to the coast too. We’ve had a change move through, dropping temps but also bringing some instability and the chance of some rain. Here’s forecast totals for today:

Not much as you can see – suspect we could actually see higher totals if we get any storms, but that will depend in part on the cloud. We need some heat to generate decent storms so might be dependent on ocean heat generating storms closer to coast and moving inland.

After today….likely back to the dry for the next few days with some more awesome Autumnal weather. Enjoy!

Showers are coming!

We’ve got showers and perhaps storms incoming over the next few days, with winds turning onshore as a trough moves closer. Ocean temperatures are pretty steamy out there at the moment:

Temps over 27C along the coast – there is a LOT of energy out there. Great to swim in, but great rain producers as well. So good that even without perfect atmospheric conditions we can still get good falls. Onshore winds and a nearby trough look like producing some decent totals for us. Here is the 4 day forecast from one model (all models show some decent totals, but as is the case with showers they differ as to who will see the biggest falls):

You can see totals around 100mm forecast for the valleys and over the ranges. Don’t take the totals as gospel – inevitably in these situations some will likely see more while other locations could see considerably less. When the rain does fall however it could come down pretty hard so flash flooding is a concern. Once we get through the next four days we’ll see showers continue but decrease in intensity. Here’s the 4 to 8 day total:

You can see more showers along the coast. With the winds likely to swing more southerly the biggest falls will sit along the coast rather than inland over the hills. The winds and cloud will keep temps down a little…though with such warm oceans it will remain fairly humid, though still fresher than recently 🙂

Model images with thanks to Weatherzone and BSCH.

Storms Inland then shower…

So what is coming up weather wise? Well after a hot day yesterday it is, as expected, much cooler today. We’ve got a heap of cloud near the coast but inland they started the day less cloudy so have warned up quickly with storms now forming. There is a trough sitting from NW Qld into NE NSW – and you can see the storms forecast to form along it this afternoon:

You can see it stays drier close to the coast despite the cloud. Tomorrow is looking fairly similar, but storms start becoming more extensive as the trough deepens. We could see a storm or two closer to our region through the afternoon:

By the time we hit Sunday the trough has moved closer to the coast and we’ll likely see much more in the way of showers and storms as we head through the afternoon and into the evening:

Those showers and storms will likely continue overnight as winds turn more onshore once again. By the time we hit Monday morning there will be showers over the ocean, likely moving inland through the day. Could see some reasonable totals if you catch some of the beefier showers:

Beyond that time winds will swing south to south-easterly and bring more showers as we head through the middle of the week. Some models bring us some decent totals while others are much more conservative – I’ll update on totals as things become clear, but right now it looks wetter, but no flooding rains looking that likely. Could still see some decent totals, getting perhaps close to 100mm over the next week for some of us, higher possible for the usual locations:

Staying cooler with winds coming from the south east – no more heatwaves over the next week or so 🙂 Images all (c) BoM.

Hot Then Wet?

That wetter spell looks like it is still creeping up on us…but before that we’ve got some heat. Today kicks off the heat with hotter air being drawn across our region from inland. 1pm temps today look like this:

Getting hotter again tomorrow with temps in the mid 30s likely across our region:

But then we start to see what could be quite a significant change as a change moves up and winds turn from westerly to easterly. Storms will kick off over the hills through Saturday, though likely missing the coast:

As winds continue to turn onshore it is looking increasingly wet as we head into Sunday:

It then looks like it could remain wet at times through next week with onshore winds pumping showers and potentially some longer spells of rain onto the coast of NE NSW and SE QLD. Overall totals are up the air and are likely to change considerably depending on subtle features moving in from the ocean, but the BoM WATL map offers some ideas – you can see the real focus over NE NSW with totals over 100mm possible:

Flooding? We’ve  been sitting with lower rainfall totals right through the summer but as we head into a wetter spell it’s worth keeping an eye on the forecasts and posts – we live in one of the most flood-prone regions of NSW and there is the potential for some river rises.

Getting hot, storms later…

Great animation from above this morning:

You can see the early cloud clearing quickly from the coastal plains, before the lumpy clouds start forming inland as the day heats up. Already into the 30s out there and going to keep on climbing for some time. Blue skies and pretty dry out there right now:

But come 1pm the temps are really climbing and that will send the seabreeze heading inland towards the hills. It’s pretty humid (OK, really humid) out there so as the seabreeze starts moving inland check out what happens to the winds – this is the 4pm chart:

Winds forecast to come in from all directions and converge over our region. The wind cannot go down into the earth, it can only go up…and when it contains as much water as it does today then storms are a good chance this arvo. Forecast rainfall to 4pm today looks a little different to the 10am chart:

You can see the rain forecast to fall up and down the coast, with a focus where those winds are forecast to converge. These are storms so some areas will see some and others miss out…but today is a pretty decent chance of seeing some decent rain rates under any storms that do form.

Looking like showers again tomorrow before the change moves through and the weather dries up again. Going to cool down some though, which has to be a good thing!

Stormy Friday?

Warming up out there with the temp already over 30C…But the difference today is an increased chance of showers and storms this arvo. Looking at this stage that most of the activity will be just to our North and heading towards Grafton. Again this is a repeating pattern of the season. Forecast rain for this arvo looking like this:

And the storm forecast for 1pm today looking like this:

Going to be hot again…for a change…Forecast top temps for the day:

Beyond today we’ve got a large cyclone heading south between Aus and NZ. That will likely generate some decent surf as we head through the weekend, though the main focus will be to our east:

Beyond that…looking a little cooler next week with the chance of a few showers. No big rains looking likely, but anything cooler than this week has to be a good thing!

Humid? Yep

A very humid start to Tuesday, with a feel-like temp already over 30C despite the cloud. Here’s the dew point for 7am this morning (dew point is the temp at which dew would form as the air reaches 100% humidity – so the higher the total the wetter the air – in these charts the redder the colour the more humidity – dew point in the 20s close to the coast):

Going to feel hot and sticky today, with a decent chance of a shower or storm through the day. There were actually a decent number of storms overnight – check out this map of lightning strikes and you can see how much activity there was to our north yesterday (orange) and overnight (red):

Coming up we’ve got a strong westerly blast tomorrow. The down side? The temps will be even higher…but the upside – away from the coastal strip the humidity levels should be much lower. Here’s the 1pm forecast dewpoint for Wednesday:

You can see how the higher humidity levels are kept right on the coastal strip. Going to be HOT though – here’s the forecast temps for 1pm:

Those westerly winds however will bring a day of Very High to Severe fire danger across much of eastern NSW. Here’s the preliminary forecast for tomorrow – shaping up to be a bad fire day:

A little cooler for Thursday, though not the real cool change we’d love to see. Looking further ahead there are signs of another heatwave in the 7 to 14 day period…

Images thanks once again to BSCH and Landgate.