Getting Wetter?

Finally looking like we could be seeing some wetter weather coming up – and that is certainly the case across far NE NSW over the next 3 days with flood watches in place for some locations. Here’s the 3 day rainfall outlook until late Saturday:

You can see big falls likely up around the border, but much lower totals likely for us. However there is another change moving up the coast through Sunday. That change will hook into the much wetter and more humid air across NSW and increase rain for us all. By the end of Sunday it’s looking like this:

Not much increase in the totals across the far NE of the state, but look how much our totals have increased – some more good falls looking likely for us as we move through the latter half of the weekend. Great follow up rains!

That’s likely not the end of the story though…that change moving up through Sunday will clear the rain out for a few days…but then it looks like the wetter pattern could return. Latest modelling shows these totals over the next couple of weeks. It’s worth bearing in mind that modelling at that time frame is challenging for all models, and that totals shown below include the rain detailed in the images above…but still looks like we could see some decent totals over the next fortnight:

No big temperatures likely over the next couple of weeks, but definitely humid at times. Still a lot warmer than over in Western Europe. Here’s the forecast snow accumulations over the next 10 days for England:

Could see some big snow over there over the next week or so. The culprit is a Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event that has raised temperatures over the North Pole massively, and sent all the cold down across Europe. Some very low temperatures likely there with significant snow likely. At the same time the warm temps across the Pole will likely add to the record low sea ice in the region.

I’ll post more about the upcoming rain over the coming days. In the meantime it’s already falling heavily across SE Qld – look forward to seeing more down here soon!

COLD in Europe, rain for us?

We’re going to be slowly leaving summer behind us soon, and heading into a slightly cooler Autumn. Still hot here for now though – and spare a thought for everyone in Western Europe – going to get very cold and snowy there over the next week. The video below shows how much above / below normal temperatures are likely to get:

Back closer to home we’re likely to see some rain tomorrow as a change moves up the coast. Likely to be fairly showery in nature so we could see a heap, or we could see much of it move to our north once again. Best chance in some time of decent rain though…get ready for it to green up again!

Forecast rain over the next week:

By no means certain we’ll see that much, but the increased rain on the chart does highlight that models are *starting* to see a potential change in the patterns, with increased rainfall looking more likely over coming weeks. Now a waiting game, with fingers crossed…

Rain at last?

Looking pretty dry out there at the moment. This map from the BoM shows how dry it is across much of NSW (green is wet, red is dry, black is very dry) – pretty unusual for mid February:

But some relief across our local area could be on its way with a change moving up the coast tomorrow:

Fingers crossed we get the showers  – really need it right now. Beyond tomorrow drying up again as the rain moves to our north. Looking like the next change of some rain will be later on over next weekend, but at this stage totals looking lower than tomorrow. The good news is that the change tomorrow will bring some lower temperatures through the remainder of the week, though likely warming up again as we head into the weekend.

Getting Hotter

The big story across Eastern Australia over the next couple of weeks is the heat. We’re really going to notice it after the recent cooler spell. Check out the animation. It shows heat anomalies every 6 hours over the next 10 days. You can see how it goes from cooler than normal across Eastern Aus through to quickly a lot warmer / hotter than normal:

 

 

Not much rain likely over the next 10 days either – lucky we saw as much as we did over recent days, as many areas to our south missed out. You can see where drought is kicking in with the current Drought Index map from the BoM:

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Looking further ahead the models are showing the increasing potential for some rain across our region – the image below shows the week three rainfall anomaly map:

cfs-avg_apcpna_aus_3.png

Fingers crossed – I’ll keep posting as we get closer…forecast charts have been showing increased rainfall for some time but then loosing interest as we get closer in.