Warm today, cooler tomorrow

A beautiful start to the day today – and likely to remain pretty awesome right through the weekend. We’ve got a cold front moving across today -you can see it in the latest satellite image below, courtesy of bsch.com.au:

That front is drawing warm north westerly winds ahead of it, and we’ll see some parts of NE NSW come close to 30C today. Not bad for the last month of Autumn (and did you know the sun starts getting stronger again from next month!) Here’s the forecast 1pm temps for today:

As that front moves through there is a chance of the odd storm – here’re the storm forecast for 4pm today:

If we do get a storm there’s a chance of hail and strong winds, but any storms will be hit and miss. A lot cooler tomorrow for the show once the change has come through. 1pm temps for tomorrow:

Something else to come from that change – the humidity levels are going to drop through the floor – here’s the forecast dew points for tomorrow – looking very low:

And with the rain next week? Right now nobody can tell what will happen. We’ll have a combination of warm and wet onsh0re winds meeting up with a cooling upper atmosphere. Some models show a heap of rain, others show it all to see, and one even has some snow the central tablelands…I’ll post again when we have some better ideas of what will happen. In the meantime enjoy the remnants of summer today 🙂

Looking warmer and drier to start May

Welcome to May! Some beautiful weather coming up (unless you’re looking for cold and wet) – lots of sunshine and not much rain around over the next week. The BoM Climate Outlook for May is out and the first image is worth checking out. The chance of exceeding regular max temps across this month for NE NSW:

The scale is maxed out right across our region, so looks like Autumn could be hanging on for some time to come. Second image shows total forecast rainfall over the next 10 days – not much coming up:

 

Hot today through Saturday, change next week

It is going to be a warm one out there today. Actually warm doesn’t do it justice – how about a record breaking day of heat across much of SE Australia. Check out the temperature anomalies for this afternoon. The anomalies show how much hotter or cooler it is compared to usual for this time of year:

That is an astonishing plume of heat across much of SE Aus. Multiple records likely to fall today. Tomorrow and Saturday sees the heat move towards the north east…so we’ll likely see even more of the heat along the NE coast through tomorrow and Saturday. You can see the change in the the temperature anomaly charts for tomorrow afternoon and Saturday afternoon:

What you can also see in the charts above is the much cooler air moving into SA and Vic. We’ll likely not see that much of the cool air, but what that change will do is bring in eventually is a change in wind direction, with winds turning more onshore across our region through the middle of next week, bringing some cloud, showers and lower temperatures:

Until then take care in the heat, summer is not done yet!

Hot this weekend, showers next week?

Despite the clickbait hype on some weather pages the cyclone did, as expected, head off away from Australia. Not much impact for us at all (though if you looked hard to the east yesterday you could just see the upper cloud from the system).

Coming up we’ve got some beautiful Autumn weather and it may even get a little hot at times. Here’s for the forecast temps for Sunday by way of example:

Mainly dry too over the next few days, but by the time we head into the middle of next week we could see the winds coming in from the east once again with temperatures dropping and stream showers coming onshore. That is sometime off right now and heaps of time for it to change, but right now looking pretty similar to this through the middle of next week…you can see the showers streaming in (and a predicted significant cyclone off the west coast):

Should this pattern come off we could see some reasonable totals accumulating over a few days with local river rises possible…though way too far off for any concerns at this time. The chart shows total accumulated rainfall (and also shows the currently forecast path of the west coast cyclone):

So right now it’s time to enjoy what could be one of the last blasts of summer this weekend, and look forward to the chance of more showers next week 🙂

Hot Then Wet?

That wetter spell looks like it is still creeping up on us…but before that we’ve got some heat. Today kicks off the heat with hotter air being drawn across our region from inland. 1pm temps today look like this:

Getting hotter again tomorrow with temps in the mid 30s likely across our region:

But then we start to see what could be quite a significant change as a change moves up and winds turn from westerly to easterly. Storms will kick off over the hills through Saturday, though likely missing the coast:

As winds continue to turn onshore it is looking increasingly wet as we head into Sunday:

It then looks like it could remain wet at times through next week with onshore winds pumping showers and potentially some longer spells of rain onto the coast of NE NSW and SE QLD. Overall totals are up the air and are likely to change considerably depending on subtle features moving in from the ocean, but the BoM WATL map offers some ideas – you can see the real focus over NE NSW with totals over 100mm possible:

Flooding? We’ve  been sitting with lower rainfall totals right through the summer but as we head into a wetter spell it’s worth keeping an eye on the forecasts and posts – we live in one of the most flood-prone regions of NSW and there is the potential for some river rises.

Getting hot, storms later…

Great animation from above this morning:

You can see the early cloud clearing quickly from the coastal plains, before the lumpy clouds start forming inland as the day heats up. Already into the 30s out there and going to keep on climbing for some time. Blue skies and pretty dry out there right now:

But come 1pm the temps are really climbing and that will send the seabreeze heading inland towards the hills. It’s pretty humid (OK, really humid) out there so as the seabreeze starts moving inland check out what happens to the winds – this is the 4pm chart:

Winds forecast to come in from all directions and converge over our region. The wind cannot go down into the earth, it can only go up…and when it contains as much water as it does today then storms are a good chance this arvo. Forecast rainfall to 4pm today looks a little different to the 10am chart:

You can see the rain forecast to fall up and down the coast, with a focus where those winds are forecast to converge. These are storms so some areas will see some and others miss out…but today is a pretty decent chance of seeing some decent rain rates under any storms that do form.

Looking like showers again tomorrow before the change moves through and the weather dries up again. Going to cool down some though, which has to be a good thing!

Stormy Friday?

Warming up out there with the temp already over 30C…But the difference today is an increased chance of showers and storms this arvo. Looking at this stage that most of the activity will be just to our North and heading towards Grafton. Again this is a repeating pattern of the season. Forecast rain for this arvo looking like this:

And the storm forecast for 1pm today looking like this:

Going to be hot again…for a change…Forecast top temps for the day:

Beyond today we’ve got a large cyclone heading south between Aus and NZ. That will likely generate some decent surf as we head through the weekend, though the main focus will be to our east:

Beyond that…looking a little cooler next week with the chance of a few showers. No big rains looking likely, but anything cooler than this week has to be a good thing!

How Hot?

Worth checking this graph out – as hot as you’ll likely see overnight. The temp did not drop below 25C, and with the humidity the apparent temp was over 30C all night:

Crazy hot and temps already climbing quickly out there. 8.20am and the apparent temp is already sitting here:

Forecast actual temperatures for 1pm today:

Likely to be a little cooler tomorrow, though not the cold change we would all love to see with temps still likely to hit the 30s through the day, similar Friday. Keep cool out there!

Humid? Yep

A very humid start to Tuesday, with a feel-like temp already over 30C despite the cloud. Here’s the dew point for 7am this morning (dew point is the temp at which dew would form as the air reaches 100% humidity – so the higher the total the wetter the air – in these charts the redder the colour the more humidity – dew point in the 20s close to the coast):

Going to feel hot and sticky today, with a decent chance of a shower or storm through the day. There were actually a decent number of storms overnight – check out this map of lightning strikes and you can see how much activity there was to our north yesterday (orange) and overnight (red):

Coming up we’ve got a strong westerly blast tomorrow. The down side? The temps will be even higher…but the upside – away from the coastal strip the humidity levels should be much lower. Here’s the 1pm forecast dewpoint for Wednesday:

You can see how the higher humidity levels are kept right on the coastal strip. Going to be HOT though – here’s the forecast temps for 1pm:

Those westerly winds however will bring a day of Very High to Severe fire danger across much of eastern NSW. Here’s the preliminary forecast for tomorrow – shaping up to be a bad fire day:

A little cooler for Thursday, though not the real cool change we’d love to see. Looking further ahead there are signs of another heatwave in the 7 to 14 day period…

Images thanks once again to BSCH and Landgate.

Cooler today, hot tomorrow, hotter Wednesday

Some images to tell a story…With more cloud cover it was cooler today:

Looking much warmer for tomorrow (Tuesday):

Wednesday is looking really hot:

The big difference between today and Wednesday is the dew point – how humid it is. Close to the coast a sea breeze will likely keep humidity levels up, but you won’t need to go far inland, likely only to the valleys, perhaps Dorrigo, to see the westerly winds push through and lower dew points dramatically. Compare the two images below – dew point for today (left) and for Wednesday (right):

Combine the high temperatures, westerly winds and low humidity levels and we will likely see raised fire danger levels through the day. What we need is some rain…image below shows total forecast between now and Wednesday:

Not much, though any rain we do see will likely come from storms. Focus on the hills once again, though a chance tomorrow that we will see more in the way of showers and storms make it closer to the coast. Fingers crossed!

The good news? Thursday is looking much cooler 🙂