Some more beautiful weather likely today, but with the slight chance of a storm on the hills this afternoon. It’s actually been really dry recently (as you would know). Here’s how the current BoM Drought Index looks for our region:

10/10 for our area – drier than we would like to see, particularly with a La Nina in action! Worth noting that this is a chart used by fire agencies rather than a deeper look into an agricultural drought. In their words “The Drought Factor (DF) provides an estimate of fine fuel dryness. It is based on the Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and rain events in the last 20 days”. Regardless, it’s a good reflection on how it’s looking out there right now. We’re lucky not to have the dry westerlies blowing through – any fires under these ground conditions has the potential to run hard. This is actually a sign that a La Nina is happening – less westerly winds and more moisture in the air…but now we need a trigger to turn the onshore winds into rain. We’ll likely see one tomorrow as temperatures cool up high and the strong Spring sunshine quickly heats the earth.

Here’s the forecast rain radar for tomorrow through Tuesday:

You can see the showers and storms developing through Monday before dieing out overnight – and then developing again Tuesday, but this time further inland. You can also see that when they develop they don’t move too quickly – so likely to be more focussed on the hills with less rain as you head towards the coast. This is a classic pattern for us at this time of year, with their air up high still cool but the earth heating up quickly in the strong sunshine.

We’ll also likely see lightning with those storms. Here’s the forecast lighting for tomorrow through Tuesday:

…again you can see the focus move inland through Tuesday. Don’t take these charts literally – it’s hard for models to forecast exactly where storms will kick off, and once they do their interactions with each other bring an element of chaos into the mix…but good to see some rain forecast. Beyond the storms it’ll likely dry up again, but longer term the outlook is still wet.

Images: BoM, Meteologix