Seasonal Outlook

A fairly benign period of weather for our region right now, which gives us a chance for a quick look forwards (and backwards). First off the rank – rainfall last week. As per the models there were some BIG totals across far NE NSW and much of Queensland. Here’s the one week totals across Aus:

We missed out on the higher falls, which is likely a good thing with local soils relatively wet after recent rains. Looking slightly further ahead there are a number of monsoonal lows circulating around Aus. At this stage there are few indications that we’ll be impacted by any of them, but if that changes I’ll make a post.

Looking further ahead and models are still confident with a relatively strong La Nina developing over the coming months and lasting into (and likely through) next summer – so much higher chances of wetter weather ahead. Here’s the latest outlook from the Canadian model – which looks fairly close to all other models at this time:

And sure enough, here’s how the forecast rain looks across the coming 11 months – you can easily see the move from drier to wetter conditions:

These are only odds – so there is still a chance of seeing a wetter spell in a drier month and vice-versa…but La Nina does tend to have a decent impact across our region so there is some confidence in the move from drier to wetter conditions. Some good news – if we do see increased rainfall later this year we’ll also likely see local temperatures returning closer to average:

Again we’ll still likely see some hot days, but the day to day chances are likely to be lower than they have been this summer.

Thanks to Tropical Tidbits / Bellingen Weather / BoM for images and animations

Many thanks to local sponsors / hosts Kombu Wholefoods and Snapfrozen for ongoing support

Signup & Socials


Want to keep on top of severe weather and know every time a new post comes out?

Sign up below and you'll get an email as soon as a local weather article is posted

We're a local organisation and don’t spam! You'll only receive emails when a new post comes out. Your details will not be shared with anyone else.

Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
LinkedIn

Related Posts

Upper Cold Pools Incoming!

The upper patterns over recent weeks have been fairly benign with little change over time…but that’s about to change over the coming couple of weeks

Seasonal Update

It’s quiet for now – after what felt like weeks of rain – so a good time to have a look further ahead. Seasonal outlooks

Showers Incoming…

After some beautiful sunshine we have onshore winds and cooling upper temperatures incoming…and with warm ocean temperatures that can only mean showers at this time