We’ve had a cool change move through early this morning which has brought cloudy skies and much cooler weather. That same change is going to kick off some decent storms to our north where it will combine with the heat of the day…but the timing for us meant just the odd shower.

It’s been fairly dry for us over the last week or so, but just to our north has seen a continuation of the wet weather – and will see more today! meanwhile the cool change will stabilise the atmosphere for some time – so little rain in the short term outlook for our area.

Maximum temperatures today are on the cool side – a nice change! Here’s the maximum forecast temp for today:

Temperatures will climb again however over coming days, and by the time we hit next Monday we’ll see top temps into the upper 30s:

We’ll see another change move through before Christmas Day to give us a cooler Christmas – max temps for the day right now looking like…

Looking like some sunshine through the day as well – perfect holiday weather! It’s looking like it will warm up again over the following days however so make the most of the cool.

Looking at the bigger picture and whilst traditional models shows the Pacific in a cool neutral phase:

…we have to remember that it is hard to get really cool water in a warming world. If we take the impact of warming oceans into account the actual pattern looks like this right now:

Using the same principal (using the relative Nino index) and it shows us in a La Nina pattern:

So why is it dry? Well it’s actually remained wet just to our north – and the Southern Oscillation has been in a negative phase, which has pushed the easterly winds further north. Going forward and it looks like it will turn positive once again over coming weeks:

Combine that with a La Nina-like phase of the Pacific and some VERY warm waters offshore (check out these anomalies!):

…and you can imagine that the chance of seeing some wetter weather once again as we head through January increases quite substantially. We’ll keep an eye on the forecasts and post again when wetter weather looks likely. Until then wishing you a fantastic Christmas and all the best for 2025!