Looking pretty dry out there at the moment. This map from the BoM shows how dry it is across much of NSW (green is wet, red is dry, black is very dry) – pretty unusual for mid February:
But some relief across our local area could be on its way with a change moving up the coast tomorrow:
Fingers crossed we get the showers – really need it right now. Beyond tomorrow drying up again as the rain moves to our north. Looking like the next change of some rain will be later on over next weekend, but at this stage totals looking lower than tomorrow. The good news is that the change tomorrow will bring some lower temperatures through the remainder of the week, though likely warming up again as we head into the weekend.
Warming up out there with the temp already over 30C…But the difference today is an increased chance of showers and storms this arvo. Looking at this stage that most of the activity will be just to our North and heading towards Grafton. Again this is a repeating pattern of the season. Forecast rain for this arvo looking like this:
And the storm forecast for 1pm today looking like this:
Going to be hot again…for a change…Forecast top temps for the day:
Beyond today we’ve got a large cyclone heading south between Aus and NZ. That will likely generate some decent surf as we head through the weekend, though the main focus will be to our east:
Beyond that…looking a little cooler next week with the chance of a few showers. No big rains looking likely, but anything cooler than this week has to be a good thing!
Worth checking this graph out – as hot as you’ll likely see overnight. The temp did not drop below 25C, and with the humidity the apparent temp was over 30C all night:
Crazy hot and temps already climbing quickly out there. 8.20am and the apparent temp is already sitting here:
Forecast actual temperatures for 1pm today:
Likely to be a little cooler tomorrow, though not the cold change we would all love to see with temps still likely to hit the 30s through the day, similar Friday. Keep cool out there!
A very humid start to Tuesday, with a feel-like temp already over 30C despite the cloud. Here’s the dew point for 7am this morning (dew point is the temp at which dew would form as the air reaches 100% humidity – so the higher the total the wetter the air – in these charts the redder the colour the more humidity – dew point in the 20s close to the coast):
Going to feel hot and sticky today, with a decent chance of a shower or storm through the day. There were actually a decent number of storms overnight – check out this map of lightning strikes and you can see how much activity there was to our north yesterday (orange) and overnight (red):
Coming up we’ve got a strong westerly blast tomorrow. The down side? The temps will be even higher…but the upside – away from the coastal strip the humidity levels should be much lower. Here’s the 1pm forecast dewpoint for Wednesday:
You can see how the higher humidity levels are kept right on the coastal strip. Going to be HOT though – here’s the forecast temps for 1pm:
Those westerly winds however will bring a day of Very High to Severe fire danger across much of eastern NSW. Here’s the preliminary forecast for tomorrow – shaping up to be a bad fire day:
A little cooler for Thursday, though not the real cool change we’d love to see. Looking further ahead there are signs of another heatwave in the 7 to 14 day period…
Images thanks once again to BSCH and Landgate.
Some images to tell a story…With more cloud cover it was cooler today:
Looking much warmer for tomorrow (Tuesday):
Wednesday is looking really hot:
The big difference between today and Wednesday is the dew point – how humid it is. Close to the coast a sea breeze will likely keep humidity levels up, but you won’t need to go far inland, likely only to the valleys, perhaps Dorrigo, to see the westerly winds push through and lower dew points dramatically. Compare the two images below – dew point for today (left) and for Wednesday (right):
Combine the high temperatures, westerly winds and low humidity levels and we will likely see raised fire danger levels through the day. What we need is some rain…image below shows total forecast between now and Wednesday:
Not much, though any rain we do see will likely come from storms. Focus on the hills once again, though a chance tomorrow that we will see more in the way of showers and storms make it closer to the coast. Fingers crossed!
The good news? Thursday is looking much cooler 🙂
Warming up quickly out there today. As I write the temp is a decent 31.6C, but the apparent temp is already heading towards 40c. That’s the impact of the high humidity levels out there. The good news? We’ve got a cool change coming in for Thursday. There’s even the chance of some showers and storms from today right through Wednesday. Forecast totals below, note the focus over the hills with much less as you head towards the coast…similar story to much of summer:
The peak of the heat looks like hitting on Wednesday – you usually see the focus of the heat just before the change comes through (as the change itself pulls more heat across from inland before it arrives):
Beyond that we could see some showers closer to the coast. There is a cyclone likely to move west across the Coral Sea over the coming week, but right now every model shows it swinging south across New Zealand with no threat to the east coast.
Getting Hot, Staying Hot……at least until next Thursday. Forecast 1pm temps for Sunday getting up there:
Monday – not much change…
Looking similar through until Wednesday. In the words of the BoM: “Severe to extreme heatwave conditions are forecast to develop over central and southeastern Queensland. The low intensity heatwave conditions shifts further north extending from the interior of WA, through central Australia, across northern NSW and also covering most of Queensland.”
Looks like a cool down will move through mid-week, cooling it down for Thursday:
No big rains likely any time soon, though some showers and storms are possible at times. Likely going to see fire danger levels potentially rising again as we dry out once more…Nothing too significant weather fire wise in the immediate outlook, which is good news for us. All images in this post courtesy of BSCH.
With not much happening weather wise (other than increasing temperatures over the next week) a post of gratitude. Thanks to Kombu Wholefoods for giving me the time to put the posts together as well as the infrastructure to host and update the website and floodcam. Thanks to the awesome crew at Bellingen Ambulance station for happily hosting the weather station. Thanks to Bellingen Council for working hard whenever I ask to keep the view from the floodcam to the bridge as clear as can be. Thanks to this amazing weather community for all the comments, suggestions, emails and thanks over the years.
The big story across Eastern Australia over the next couple of weeks is the heat. We’re really going to notice it after the recent cooler spell. Check out the animation. It shows heat anomalies every 6 hours over the next 10 days. You can see how it goes from cooler than normal across Eastern Aus through to quickly a lot warmer / hotter than normal:
Not much rain likely over the next 10 days either – lucky we saw as much as we did over recent days, as many areas to our south missed out. You can see where drought is kicking in with the current Drought Index map from the BoM:
Looking further ahead the models are showing the increasing potential for some rain across our region – the image below shows the week three rainfall anomaly map:
Fingers crossed – I’ll keep posting as we get closer…forecast charts have been showing increased rainfall for some time but then loosing interest as we get closer in.
With Facebook changing the way it works it will likely get harder to get to see all our posts…so starting now we are going to be posting them onto our news page (at www.bellingenweather.org/news). The posts will be automatically posted to this Facebook page and also to our new Twitter account (twitter.com/BelloWeather) so feel free to grab the news and make comments wherever you want! Images will be posted in full and in context on our news page…not sure how they will come out on Facebook and Twitter but will work to make sure they work as best they can for everyone, regardless of whether you use the news page, Facebook page or Twitter.