Rain is coming…

We’ve got a dynamic and likely quite wet spell of weather coming up. This animation shows the weather forecast for the next 10 days – you can see that once the change moves through on Wednesday we get into a pattern of onshore winds with showers and longer spells of rain:

There could be some decent falls coming up – but this event will likely be categorised by how long it lasts rather than a huge fall on one day. The accumulated rainfall for the next 10 days shows it well, with the totals increasing day by day rather than a huge fall on any one day:

I’ve selected late next week to show some of the totals forecast by the models. You can see it more dramatically in these forecast rain totals from ECMWF:

…and GFS:

Both show some BIG totals looking likely…but don’t focus on the numbers – more on the indication of wet weather ahead and some decent rain totals likely, which over a week or so could accumulate into some higher end totals by the time it clears through. Usually when we see these totals forecast it is from an event lasting a couple of days – and over a short period of time such totals would likely bring some flooding. With this event forecast to last for a significant period of time it means the ground has more time to absorb the rain, meaning lower fast river rises…but also worth noting that a couple of models show a low forming offshore across SE Qld or NE NSW – and if that happened we could see some bigger totals if it formed just to our north.

Before we kick off the rain we’ve got another two days of storms likely. Some around today, much as yesterday, but a significant increase likely tomorrow as the change moves up and turns winds more onshore. The forecast temps over the next 10 days show it well – much higher daytime peaks forecast today and tomorrow, with much lower totals to follow as cloud and showers increase and winds turn more onshore:

So an interesting spell of weather coming up. I’ll post more, both here and on the Facebook page, as we head into it.

Gratitude: Many thanks as always to weather.us and tropicaltibdits for the charts and images.

Chance of storms then cooler

We’ve got a warm day today, with temps heading up towards 30C:

Once again this is ahead of a cool change which will move through overnight. That change moving up will likely trigger some storms over the ranges to our west through this afternoon. Those storms will then move south east towards the coast. We’re at the edge of the risk area with most storms likely to our south and west, but still a chance we’ll see something kick off. Storm forecast for today like this – you can see how close to the edge we sit with storms much more likely inland and to our south:

After that change moves through tomorrow looks a LOT cooler with the chance of showers – a completely different day to today. Here’s forecast max temps for tomorrow afternoon:

Once we move through tomorrow we’ve got another few drier and sunnier days coming up again, though this time we’re unlikely to see so much of the warmer weather before the next change moves through on Monday. That next change will combine with some decent cold air up high to increase instability and the chance of showers and storms. Total forecast rain over the next 8 days looks like this:

…however some models are showing totals higher than those shown here. With the cold air up high the potential for higher rain totals and a more dynamic surface pattern are certainly there – I’ll post more over the weekend.  Beyond that it looks like a similar pattern ahead – changes coming through but with the ongoing risk of showers and storms, so dry at times but by no means dry right though.

Lots to talk about…

There is a lot happening in the weather world at the moment so going to post here as we can mix images and posts…

We’ve had some good rain over the last couple of weeks – and now with temperatures climbing and the sun shining everything is starting to grow quickly. This image shows how much of our usual September total NSW has received so far:

Only a third of the way into the month but already over our total September average…

The rain so far could be good news – there is still the chance of an El Nino forming…and we have also got the Antarctic Oscillation likely to head back into the negatives over the next couple of weeks:

The AAO is a rough measure of how far north or south winter weather systems and high pressure systems sit. Through August the AAO sat in the negative, and we had bush fires and dry weather as a result. It then turned strongly positive in early September and we saw some really good rains as a result. The AAO is very hard to predict but right now it looks like it could head back into the negative again later this month – which increases the chance (but no guarantee) of drier weather once again. The recent rains should help alleviate the impact of a drier spell – it will take some time before fire risks increase again.

Looking over the next week we should see a lot of dry weather across our region with just a few showers or storms, more likely on the hills. Here’s the forecast rainfall from a couple of the top models through this weekend:

Forecast rain from the ECMWF model
Forecast rain from the German model

With Spring now well established drier weather means it will warm up quickly. Each day from now through Saturday will be warmer than the one before…so by the time we hit the weekend we’ll likely be in the low 30s:

Forecast Maximum Temps Saturday

All pretty usual Spring like weather coming up for us….but right now the Northern Hemisphere tropics are in overdrive. There are numerous significant storms around – including Florence which is likely to hit the US later this week. Here’s the (beautiful but scary) current view of the tropical Atlantic:

…and here is the forecast rainfall across parts of the east coast of the USA over the next 10 days – if this comes off they will be facing some devastating flooding:

That’ll do for now – I’ll come back with an update in the next few days. I’ll be retweeting the most interesting posts on Florence on the Bello Weather twitter feed if you want to keep up with what is happening on the other side of the world, otherwise look forward to sharing more local weather news with you soon!

Rain Coming?

** Longer article – click on the link to see all images if reading this on Facebook **

We had one change move through overnight bringing us a little rain – only 1.2mm recorded in town. The next change moves through over the weekend and once again it will bring some bigger falls inland. As this one moves towards the coast there are some signs however that we could be in sweeter spot this time around, with winds turning onshore temporarily late Sunday and through Monday. With a cold change moving through up high there will be some decent instability around. Combine that instability with a whole heap of moisture moving in from the north west and onshore winds at low levels…and we could see some decent falls. It is still some time off so there is time for us to move back out of favour but right now we’ve got the models looking like this:

European Model – the best of the bunch:

American model – next best model around:

German model:

…and the Australian model – this is the only one not so keen right now…but was also the best at predicting the last system so definitely worth giving it a consideration:

I’ll post more as we get closer, but we are sitting below average right now and this is a good time to get some rain into the earth. Fingers crossed it comes together.

Not much rain – but getting much colder

Not much rain coming up in the next week. Here’s the forecast totals over the next 9 days:

With winter here right now the dry usually means one thing -the chance of some cold nights! Not looking too cold tonight:

…but with a cold dry change sweeping through this weekend it’s going to be a cold start to next week. These are the forecast temps as we wake up next Monday morning – some decent frosts around:

…time to get the firewood in. Always the chance of a few showers over the next couple of weeks but no signs of any bigger rainy spells at this time – we were very blessed to get the rains last week.

Ouch! Drier and Hotter than normal forecast for Winter

The latest BoM winter forecast has just come out – and it is looking much drier and warmer than normal across much of SE Australia. Four images below tell the story:

Rainfall Forecast:

Maximum Temperature (likelihood of the maximum daytime temperature being above normal):

Minimum Temperature (likelihood of the minimum nighttime temperature being above normal):

You can see how much drier than normal it has been so far in 2018 in this rainfall percentage map from the BoM:

We should still see some rain through winter – we’re not looking at dry-right-through weather. We’re also lucky to be located close to the ocean – this means we are likely to still see some showers or periods of rain when a change comes through and the stars align. There is also always a decent chance of a winter East Coast Low (which can wipe out anomalies overnight) – but overall there is a greater than normal chance of dry over the three months of winter. Now let’s see what happens.

Warm today, cooler tomorrow

A beautiful start to the day today – and likely to remain pretty awesome right through the weekend. We’ve got a cold front moving across today -you can see it in the latest satellite image below, courtesy of bsch.com.au:

That front is drawing warm north westerly winds ahead of it, and we’ll see some parts of NE NSW come close to 30C today. Not bad for the last month of Autumn (and did you know the sun starts getting stronger again from next month!) Here’s the forecast 1pm temps for today:

As that front moves through there is a chance of the odd storm – here’re the storm forecast for 4pm today:

If we do get a storm there’s a chance of hail and strong winds, but any storms will be hit and miss. A lot cooler tomorrow for the show once the change has come through. 1pm temps for tomorrow:

Something else to come from that change – the humidity levels are going to drop through the floor – here’s the forecast dew points for tomorrow – looking very low:

And with the rain next week? Right now nobody can tell what will happen. We’ll have a combination of warm and wet onsh0re winds meeting up with a cooling upper atmosphere. Some models show a heap of rain, others show it all to see, and one even has some snow the central tablelands…I’ll post again when we have some better ideas of what will happen. In the meantime enjoy the remnants of summer today 🙂

Getting Wetter?

First hints of some wetter weather possible next week with onshore winds coming in off a warm ocean. What sort of totals? Way too early to have any idea. As is usual at this time frame some models showing heaps while others show very little. A couple of options in the images below – BUT take the totals with a pinch of salt, likely to change a lot over the next few days as the models get a handle on what is likely to happen – we could see nothing, we could see heaps.

First image from the latest US model run:

This is from the Australian model this morning:

But the latest European run doesn’t think much of it:

If this event does come off it we are more likely to see rain and showers move inland, unlike the offshore thunderfest a few weeks back. Once it becomes clearer I’ll post again 

Looking warmer and drier to start May

Welcome to May! Some beautiful weather coming up (unless you’re looking for cold and wet) – lots of sunshine and not much rain around over the next week. The BoM Climate Outlook for May is out and the first image is worth checking out. The chance of exceeding regular max temps across this month for NE NSW:

The scale is maxed out right across our region, so looks like Autumn could be hanging on for some time to come. Second image shows total forecast rainfall over the next 10 days – not much coming up:

 

Showers coming ashore…

We’ve had some showers come across last night and will likely see more later today. The heaviest of the showers however have been streaming north along the coast. You can see the steering winds at 10am today in this wind chart from Weatherzone (steering winds are the winds at the height in the sky that decide which direction showers and storms will move – this is different to surface wind direction):

…but by 10pm tonight the steering winds are turning more onshore:

…so we we have into tonight there is a greater chance for showers to move across our region. By 10pm Monday night you can see how strong the steering winds have become, sending showers clattering onto the coast and inland:

Looking at this stage that we will be in showery conditions until midweek, when it is looking possible for a change to push the unsettled weather out to sea. There is a chance of some very decent falls over the next few days with river rises possible. Total forecast rain over the next 4 days currently looking like this:

Details are still sketchy as to exactly what will pan out, but our region is one that can accumulate some big falls in these situations as winds come ashore and are forced to rise over the mountains, so it’s worth being aware that we could see some river rises in the next few days. I’ll post again tomorrow with an update.