First off we’ve had a dry spell recently – enough to bring fires across much of NE NSW:

Most of the fire activity has been away from our valleys – as is usually the case – but even we’ve seen a fire pop up in Darkwood a couple of days back:

This is *not* usual activity for April! The culprit is the very dry weather we’ve been experiencing so far this month. Here’s how rain percentages for the month to date add up right now:

…and that sits on top of a very dry start to the year across NE NSW:

The good news is that we should see some showers move in over the coming week. The ocean just offshore remains well above average:

…and that will help add some energy to the showers. There’s also some colder air up high floating across NSW at times over the coming week…so get the right combo and we could see a real downpour – which is what is looking possible right now. This will be a real change from what we’ve seen over recent weeks. Models shows the showers sweeping in fairly clearly – before they eventually clear to the north:

We’ll keep an eye on totals over coming days as it looks like we could see some decent totals or even (with ocean temps well above average) an East Coast Low.

Looking much further ahead and the forecast El Nino event *could* end up being a very decent event. it’s just starting to pop up off the coast of South America:

…will likely combine with the warm event off the Southern US / Mexican coast:

…and then add in a monster amount of heat from a warm Kelvin Wave currently moving east under the Pacific:

…to bring us a potentially very strong El Nino later this winter, with anomalies over 2c possible:

Worth noting here that the Southern Oscillation Index (a scale that gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean) is already moving fairly dramatically towards El Nino:

So what does that mean for us? A significant risk of much drier (and hotter) than average late winter / spring across much of eastern Australia…BUT worth being aware that the east coast is not usually as impacted as the inland – we can still get wetter localised onshore events even during an El Nino – this has saved us from the worst bushfire conditions on many occasions.

Other drivers also play important roles. The Indian Ocean is currently moving towards a drier influence, while the important Antarctic circulation is still developing for the winter season – as such we’re couple of months away from knowing if it will trend wetter or drier – more on that over the winter. Regardless…this upcoming season is looking much drier than the last few years for many parts of eastern Australia and the likely strength of the incoming El Nino could have significant fire and drought consequences for many. More on this as we move into winter.

One longer term impact of the upcoming El Nino will be a significant uptick in global ocean temperatures, as well as global air temperatures. Ocean temperatures are already sitting at record levels:

…with global air temperatures currently sitting just off record levels:

…and as such a strong El Nino is not what we need.

Back to the present – I’ll update again if it looks like we’ll see significant totals from the upcoming showery spell. Worth noting that more than 50mm in 24 hours will close the Waterfall Way (temporarily) once again. Until then wishing you some rain for your garden and thanks for making it to the end!