After a warm weekend we’ve got a slightly cooler day incoming today – here’s the max temps forecast for this arvo:

…but worth enjoying the cooler weather as by the time we hit midweek we’ll have another change moving in and that change will draw more hot air across from inland – so it’ll be hotter once again – here’s the forecast max temps for Wednesday:

We’ll see a sea breeze trying to move in close to the coast but it likely won’t make it that far. With recent dry weather and the high temperatures we could see our fire danger levels creep up from current Moderate values and into the High category. Permit season kicks in on Wednesday – likely just in time.

There doesn’t look like much rain incoming over the next 10 days – in fact current rain totals over that period look like this:

That combination of dry weather and increasingly hot sunshine will work to increase inland temperatures even further – so whilst this Wednesday is already looking fairly hot, by the time we get to Wednesday next week it might be getting even hotter. A long way out and time for change but right now the forecast max temperatures for Wednesday next week are looking like this:

That’s a long way off however…will post again closer to the time if it looks like we will see temperatures up around that level. The reason for the hotter drier weather – the already discussed Sudden Stratospheric Warming over the Antarctic. Hard to go better than the recent ABC News article about this event so won’t add anything but instead you click here to read more about it. SSW events used to be very rare in the southern hemisphere – reasons for the change could range from climate change to the Tongan volcanic eruption which injected massive amounts of water into the upper atmosphere (most likely in my opinion – impacts likely to last another few years).

The Indian and Pacific Oceans are both still in wetter phases – but clashing with the drying impacts of the southern vortex. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out over coming weeks. Needless to say I’ll be watching closely and will keep you posted. In the meantime thanks to Kombu and Snapfrozen for sponsoring this site and keeping the weather station and floodcam online 🙂