Some good news (for us) – it looks like sea breezes will win out and the worst of the upcoming severe heat will remain inland. Here’s tomorrow – well into the 40s west of the divide but low 30s east of the divide:

Could be a little hotter on Monday – well into the 30s on the lowlands and valleys and possibly hitting 40 on the Clarence plains, but still not reaching the heights we will see inland:

Another cool(ish) change along the coast for Tuesday but the heat remains inland:

…and so it continues through the week. Not a time to be heading west. In fact if we look wider across NSW there’s a chance of cracking 50 in one or two locations in western NSW:

Here’s the BoM forecast:

Severe heatwave warning for: Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Northern Tablelands, Central Tablelands, Snowy Mountains, North West Slopes and Plains, Central West Slopes and Plains, South West Slopes, Riverina, Lower Western and Upper Western

Maximum temperatures increasing this weekend to the low to mid forties west of the ranges, and reaching the mid to high thirties along the coast and ranges. Overnight minimum temperatures in the low to mid teens and up to the mid twenties in the northwest, increasing to mid to high twenties west of the ranges and mid teens to low twenties along the coast and ranges. Severe heatwave conditions are expected to intensify this weekend and early next week. Locations likely to be impacted include Armidale, Broken Hill, Bourke, Cobar, Dubbo, Deniliquin, Moree, Orange, Tamworth and Wagga Wagga.

Worth keeping inland areas in our thoughts this week – going to be some dangerous heat out there. Here’s the weekly forecast for Albury as an example:

At this point it’s not looking like we’ll see much rain over the coming week…just the chance of showers / storms with / after changes. Catch a good storm and you’ll see some decent totals, but more widespread rain isn’t looking likely this week. As we head into next weekend there’s a chance we’ll see some deeper moisture move in from the Coral Sea, possibly accompanied by a low pressure cell…but that’s a long way off. More later in the week if anything interesting looks likely!

Ocean temperatures are still pretty warm – averaging around 26c offshore:

That’s a little cooler than it has been – recent activity across tropical Queensland has cooled Coral Sea temps a little, and that means less heat pumping down the East Australia Current. Regardless it’s still pretty toasty out there. With the forecast heat we may see ocean temps creep up again over the coming week. Looking further ahead and the forecasts from the BoM show the Pacific heading towards El Nino thresholds through winter – though still too early to lock in:

This would push eastern Aus towards drier conditions as we head towards next spring. We’re lucky as our region tends to catch whatever precipitation is available, so can miss out on the worst of the dry spells (as we did this spring) – but regardless one to watch. The Indian ocean forecast is also tending drier as we head towards spring:

…so another to watch as we head into winter and towards our fire season. More on the latest seasonal outlooks around a week into February as the monthly forecasts are released. Back again when the next significant weather event looks likely for our region – see you then!