Could we be seeing the change to wetter conditions? After a big day on Sunday with the forecasts playing out and temperatures in Bello hitting the low 40s, the weather is now starting to look more stormy and wetter as we move forwards. La Nina is in place across the Pacific:
The Southern Annular Mode is finally starting to play ball and move into positive territory:
…which will keep high pressure anchored further south. Now we need to kick away the shackles of the east coast ridge and we could well see some bigger rains as we move into our wetter time of year. We could see that start to kick into gear over the coming few days. Here’s the forecast lightning for each afternoon from today through the following week:
You can see the chance of a storm over the hills this arvo – but then an explosion in storm activity over the following week. We won’t see storms every day, and this week by itself won’t be a drought breaker (and in fact there is the risk of new fire starts from lightning – the amount of lightning forecast compared to the rain totals is less than ideal) – but it looks like being the start of a move towards wetter conditions. Here’s the forecast rain over the coming 10 days. Worth noting that models will average rain across an area – so some will likely see more, while others see less:
You can see the higher totals are forecast along the hills with less on the coastal plains – but everywhere has the chance of seeing some storms move through. We’ll also see temperatures into the low 30s each day through Sunday and it will feel hot in the sun. A more significant cool down looks like moving in through next week. Spare a thought for those west of the divide – they are still in the grip of the current heatwave for at least another few days with temps well into the 40s likely.
It’s not a guarantee but models still show much wetter conditions are likely through December, January and February…so definitely a good time to keep an eye on forecasts and floodcams. I’ll post again when more significant rain looks likely.
Images: Meteologix / Stratobserve / NOAA. Animation: Bello Weather