There are few guarantees in the world of weather…but right now it’s looking *possible* that another east coast low will develop through the coming weekend in response to a strong upper trough moving in from the west. Some models show us getting some decent rain from this event. The latest GFS model shows the following:
If it comes off as shown in this model we would see some big rain totals across our region as the upper low and surface winds would align to bring strong onshore winds and strong uplift across our area.
The EC model shows things a little differently:
It’s still too far off to be sure what will happen. Right now we feel fairly certain that an east coast low will develop. If it forms to our north we’ll see some big rains and likely strong winds, with flooding a possibility. If it forms further east or south we could end up with some dry and gusty south westerly winds and little if any rain. To give you some idea of the difference the position of the low can make, check out these two forecast rainfall totals for our region:
BoM ACCCESS Model, with the focus of the low further south:
American GFS model with the focus of the low to our north:
I should emphasise that these are the two extremes – other models come in between, with forecast rain totals beween 0mm and 100mm – so NOTHING like the extreme totals indicated in the latest GFS run -> don’t panic yet! What these models do indicate however is that a rain event is possible for us, and that we could see some decent totals.
At this time there appears to be a higher chance that the low will form further north than the feature that brought the rain and erosion last week to our south, but by no means certain. I’ll post again through this week as the forecast models settle down.