Storms today, wet start to 2021

Storms likely later on today, with more rain to come over the next couple of weeks - our La Nina summer is definitely here....

Hope you all had a great Christmas – and nice to see it a little drier (if not completely dry) through the holiday. We’ve got more rain coming though, with a trough moving north along the coast through today. That trough will likely reach us in time for peak heat today – so we should see temperatures rocket up into the low 30s today before storms rapidly develop and move through later today. There will be enough heat and instability for the chance of some stronger storms this afternoon, and with a lot of water in the air, heavy rain is a real possibility. Here’s the lightning map for 5pm today:

….and you can see widespread storms looking likely right across much of the Mid North Coast. Rain totals through the next 48 hours are looking decent as well….though as much of the rain will come from storms it’s worth taking the forecasts as a rough guide only – some will see some big totals while others see much less. If we do get some big totals in the right spots then rapid creek rises are posible. The European model looks like this for combined today / tomorrow:

….while the Australian model looks like this:

….so you can see some good totals are possible – it’s a good day to keep an eye on the radar, with hail and strong winds also possible. Looking further ahead it’s still looking fairly wet, with deep onshore winds likely at times as we head into 2021. Combined rainfall over the next couple of weeks could add up into some considerable totals. The monsoon is now in full swing, and with a La Nina in play across the Pacific most of the east coast looks wet. Here’s the 8 day forecast totals from the BoM:

I’ll post again if any standout events look likely. You can check current rain rates and totals in town on this page. The river height information is available here, and the Floodcams can be viewed here. Warnings from the BoM can be found here, with the latest SES information here. Not weather related (though I guess recent rains contributed) but I received a notification last night that Darkwood Road is closed to most traffic at Die Happy bridge. Access for the remainder of Darkwood Road is via Horseshoe and Orama Road. More info here.

Wishing you a fantastic holiday week and a great New Year!

Images: BoM / Meteologix

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