After some disagreement all models are tonight showing the potential for some big fall somewhere along the east coast. Nice one EC for being the first model to pick the upcoming event. A pool of colder upper air is forecast to develop close to us early next week. You can see the yellow circle across our region on this upper temperature chart:

Once you combine cold temperatures up high with our very warm ocean temperatures and onshore winds, it is a pretty good bet that someone is going to get very wet. Sit to the north of the surface feature and you’ll likely see westerly winds and little rain…sit to the south and you’ll see easterly winds and flooding rains. And right now it is almost impossible to say exactly who will see what. Here is the current thinking from three model runs:

The ECMWF (European) Model:

 The GFS (American) model:

The ACCESS (Australian) model:

All have a heap of rain falling but with a focus on different areas. I won’t post all upcoming model runs, but once things settle down and we have more information on likely impacts, if any, for our region I’ll post another update 🙂