Not the first time to write along a similar theme this season….After a very hot day on Monday we were lucky to find ourselves sitting just south of the trough through yesterday – and what a difference that made. Grafton, Casino and areas north had very hot temperatures and strong dry winds through the day…and the result was some devastating bushfire weather. Here’s the radar covering Tuesday:

The smoke was so thick that it appeared as rain on the radar – never a good sign 🙁

Some better news – there is some rain coming. Here’s how the rainfall totals look to the end of this weekend – the chance of some decent falls right across NE NSW. The rain is a result of some cold air streaming north up high – and meeting some warmer, wetter winds blowing off the Pacific:

You can see some of the models give us some big totals, so a chance of some decent falls for us…and for a change for many other areas across NE NSW too!

Looking further ahead we’ve got three key players:

The Pacific (El Nino / La Nina) is currently sitting in a neutral state, so unlikely to have much influence at this time.

The Southern Ocean (SAM / AAO) is currently sitting in neutral…despite many forecasts showing a negative AAO and much drier / hotter weather it is still to materialise, so right now having little impact.

The Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean Dipole) – currently one of the strongest events on record, with a significant drying impact across SE Oz.

Where to from here? I’ll post an update on them all soon.