RAIN this weekend

Something that many parts of NE NSW have wanted for some time – a decent widespread rain event – should kick off through tomorrow, before clearing away through Saturday. The reason for the rain? Some cold air from deep down south moving north across our region. Here’s how the upper pattern (colours) and surface pattern (pressure lines) come together over the next 5 days:

…and that should result in some decent rain over the next 48 hours. Here’s how it pans out from the same GFS model:

You can see showers develop offshore tonight as the colder air moves north, then develop overland tomorrow as the day warms up. Through tomorrow night we’ll likely see those showers continue as winds turn onshore and the showers developing over the ocean are blown inland.

All this will continue through Saturday before a clearance as we head through the day. All models show some totals from this event, with some giving us some decent totals. Here’s the accumulated rainfall from a number of models:

We’ll take what we can from this event – as it looks like warming up again next week. Here’s the forecast temperature anomaly for 10am Wednesday morning, with hot air once again sweeping across from the WA heat factory:

Beyond that? No sign right now of any other decent rain events. The Indian Ocean pattern currently indicates much drier than average conditions across much of SE Australia, while the Pacific and to our south are currently neutral. The Southern Oscillation is the one to watch closely – but more on that later.

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