Good morning Bellingen! Morning models are still showing some rain likely over the next few days, with some decent totals possible, particularly closer to the coast. We’ve got an upper trough moving in, and that upper pool of cold air will generate a deep trough along the east coast, which is then likely to further develop into an east coast low. Here’s how one of the models sees it happening:

Rain will likely taper off quite quickly as you move inland…but nearly all models (with the exception of the Australian model) show some good totals across our region:

The take from this? We should see rain and showers increase as we move towards, and then through the weekend. With cold air up high, thunderstorms are also possible. There is a good chance that we’ll see some decent totals, so worth keeping an eye on the radar, forecasts and warnings over the coming few days. And…as it always the case with east coast lows…there is still some uncertainty as to where the low will form – forming to our south / east means much less rain for us…while forming to our north could mean some big totals. Until it actually forms it will be hard to pin those totals down.

The good news? It’s good to see the chance of some rain before we head into Spring, and fire season.