We’ve been in a La Nina pattern for some time now, but the easterlies have been missing. It looks like they could come back with a bang over the coming week, with a deep and long easterly flow over above average SSTs come pushing into the east coast. Very supportive uppers are also likely…Here is how EC sees it – long lasting event with troughing close to the coast from time to time and an ocean trough (possible low) looking to move onshore:
GFS has the event moving offshore more quickly but also develops a nasty looking low that it then moves quickly onto the NSW coast:
GFS has been chopping and changing from run to run, with EC and the local ACCESS model a lot more consistent. They all give some big falls onto / close to the coast…though the synoptic pattern that GFS is showing would, IMHO, give bigger falls further inland close to where the low makes it ashore…but either way it’s looking like it could get wet along the NSW and SE QLD coast. Focus right now looks to be close to our region, but could change – EC has been keeping big falls into SE QLD too. Here is the forecast rain out to 180 hours from EC (which has been consistently forecasting some big totals), GFS (up and down from run to run), ACCESS (as with EC consistently forecasting some big totals) and a new model, ICON:
Focussing on our region in more detail, here’s the forecast rain from a number of models over the coming 10 days. First up the ensemble run from EC – which is usually as good as you’ll get in terms of mid range forecast models:
GFS has been increasing the totals from run to run. Here is the latest 10 day total from that model:
…and from the Australian BoM ACCESS model:
Some BIG totals out there…but right now it’s a case of being alert but not alarmed. There is a good chance we’ll see the biggest rains for some time…but the event is still a couple of days off…Now could be a good time to consider assets at rivers and outdoors, consider how much food you have in your larder if you live in an area vulnerable to being cut off with heavy rains, and keep an eye on the models and BoM warnings. I’ll post updates over the coming days.
Images: Meteologix, Tropical Tidbits, Bellingen Weather