Looking short term, middle term and longer term…

Chance of storms short term, but no big totals likely...but what does the longer outlook look like? Here's the latest...

We’ve seen some good falls over the last month across much of NSW – though the North East hasn’t done as well as some other areas….though as is usually the case with our helpful mountains, we have come out pretty well. Here’s the October rainfall – and you can see the impact of La Nina:

Looking ahead over the next couple of weeks, we are likely to see more of the same across our region – the mountains will kick off showers and storms from time to time, with less mountainous regions to our north and south likely to see less rain. Worth noting that we will also see some decent periods of dry over the coming 10 days as well – we’re unlikely to see storms every day. Here’s the 10 day forecast rainfall from EC:

No huge totals likely, but should be enough to keep it looking green. Looking further ahead through summer we are still trending a LOT wetter than last year. Compare the Nov to Jan rainfall forecast for 2019/20 with the same for 2020/21:

La Nina still looking like peaking through our summer before a big rebound towards neutral as we head into winter:

So every sign that we have a lot more wet weather to come. Once we head into winter there is also every sign that it will dry up. Here’s the forecast rainfall anomalies for this December against next May – and you can see the drying trend:

In a sentence….storms likely, wetter through the summer before a switch to drying out likely kicks in as we head towards winter. Enjoy!

Images: BoM / Meteologix. Animations: Bellingen Weather

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