Is it going to rain?

It was hot and steamy yesterday, with thunder rolling around during the afternoon (though much of it seemed to miss the valley again). Starting the day today with a heap of cloud and much cooler temperatures. There is a lot of instability around but with warm oceans and a cooler landmass most of the shower activity is out in the ocean right now:

That matches what the models are showing for this time of day as well. I always try to check what the models  had forecast against what is happening – if the forecast to that time is pretty much on the mark then we can place more confidence in what they are forecasting is coming up. Looking at the model forecast for right now…

…and it is pretty much on the mark. That model (and a couple of other key models) is forecasting some rain and showers through the day today with those showers and storms likely to increase in intensity through tonight and tomorrow as some colder air moves through overhead:

As with all showers and storms some areas (as yesterday) will see some good totals while others see much less. Let’s hope we are in the firing line this time.

Looking further ahead it looks like getting a little drier for the rest of this week with just a few showers from time to time…but then the following week is showing some signs of something potentially coming together in the Coral Sea, as well as wetter weather for us. A long way off and this season has been one where the models have let us down with long term (week to two week) rain forecasts, so I’ll keep an eye on it and post again when we have more clarity.

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