We’ve got flooding rains way down south this morning as multiple lows spin along a trough and clatter into the southern NSW coast. Here’s the current radar view – and it hasn’t changed much the last 24 hours. Rain totals shown are from 9am this morning – totals to 9am were over 100mm in several locations:

As the trough starts moving away it will send some strong southerly winds blasting up the NSW coast. I’ve put together this animation from the high resolution BoM model to show the winds from now through tomorrow evening:

You can see that the models forecast another low to form off the Mid North Coast – if that does happen it will help to wind winds up even further, so could get very breezy along the coast. We’ll also see some showers blown inland as the southerly runs through – it could feel very cold and wintry out there for a time later tomorrow!

Looking further ahead we’re likely to see another system move through the inland and out to sea later next week. Models initially showed this system bringing rain further north…but for now they’re once again giving southern NSW another downpour:

Beyond that the models are still indicating a wetter Spring and Summer…which doesn’t mean rain right through but a much higher chance of wetter spells than we saw last year. Here’s the outlook for this month – which seems to be on the mark so far:

….Compare that to the forecast for January – which is already a wetter month – so this forecast hints at the chance of some much wetter weather to come:

Seasonal forecasts are still a work in progress, but the consistency this year is a good indicator that they could be on the mark. This contrasts to last year – at this point last year fires were already kicking off around our region, marking the start of a terrible season.

We’re still likely to see fires this year, though likely not to the extent of 2019/20. North Bellingen Rural Fire Brigade will be outside Kombu Wholefoods this coming Saturday from 9am to 12pm – come and grab a fire plan template, some free stuff for the kids, and chat to members about preparations you can make.