Warming up this week after some more welcome rain over the weekend. Here’s an animation of the max forecast temps for this coming week:

You can see it warming up through Thursday, before a cooler change moves through for Friday.

We’re unlikely to see much rain this week, though a storm can’t be ruled out. At this stage it looks like there will be some storms developing on Thursday, but they’ll likely be to our North. Forecast rain through the end of this week is looking like this:

We could see raised fire danger levels later this week, but recent (and forecast) rains should hopefully help keep a bit of a lid on the danger ratings.

Looking further ahead there isn’t much to see right now. No big rain events on the horizon. The bigger picture we are seeing come together is a change in the ocean drivers (and for more on what that means check this post from last week). The Indian Ocean is sitting in a strongly positive phase, the Pacific is sitting in neutral, but the SAM is starting to head into the negative…and if forecasts are correct it could sit there for some time. This may have impacts for us as we head through the latter part of this month and through November, with an increased risk of dry and hot weather. The latest SAM forecast looks like this:

I’ll keep an eye on this one and post more as we move through October.