Short Term Dry, Longer Term Wet

Looking dry for now, but longer term the patterns are still trending wetter...

It’s pretty dry out there at the moment but longer term it is still looking like it should get wetter…particularly as we enter our traditional bushfire season. That doesn’t mean no fires, just looking like we could see a reduction in the intenity that we faced last season…thank goodness. Still time for that to change, but the models are still pointing in that direction.

Here’s the Pacific forecast – looking like either cool neutral or La Nina for the coming season:

The Indian Ocean is also playing ball, with a negative IOD looking likely as we head towards Spring. This brings much wetter conditions across much of SE Aus, particularly west of the divide:

The Antarctic is currently negative, which is bringing us drier weather. This one can still have a big impact through the late winter and right now it’s impossible to say how this one will move…as an atmospheric event rather than oceanic it is subject to many more changes than we see in the ocean:

So what does all that mean with the rainfall outlook? Here’s the forecast from the top ECMWF model – and it’s looking like it should get significantly wetter as we head through winter:

I’ll keep posting as we move through the seasons and forecasts update, and again when any significant events look likely. Until then enjoy this sunshine, and may the late winter rains arrive! We might even see an East Coast low or two…something we have not seen for some time!

This Post Has 2 Comments

  1. Kerry Cricket

    Thank you for the amazing work you do for our community.It is so fantastic to have such well researched, knowledgeable information available to us and is much appreciated.
    Seeking your comment, based on current weather predications,
    do you think July looks like an ok time to paint outside house?
    Won’t hold you to if, sky suddenly opens up!😄
    Thank you.

    1. admin

      Hi Kerry, thanks for the comment. Right now the forecasts show it could get wetter as we head through winter, but the short term forecast is yet to see that actually happen. July and August are the driest months of the year on average, so a better time to get that work done than, say February. Day to day we can still see big rains at that time of year however, and fate usually means that it coincides with a painting job!

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