No rain short term, wetter longer term still likely…

Not much rain likely over the next week or so - but we've done well so far this year, and it looks like more to come...

We’ve had some more rain over the last week or so – in fact this is how we fared over the last week with some more decent totals:

Nothing huge but this comes on top of a decent May, so we’re looking pretty good so far:

We’ve not had much in the way of big rains since February…with ocean patterns I’d be expecting to see more East Coast Lows and some bigger rains from time to time…but the combination of fire-stopping rains earlier in the year and recent ongoing additions means we’re seeing some decent totals for the year to date:

A big difference to the same period last year…in fact many places have already seen more this year than they saw in the whole of 2019! We’re not only wetter than last year, but we’re actually above average for the year to date when compared to all years:

Looking ahead and we have models still indicating a move towards La Nina as we head towards late winter and spring. Here’s how the American model sees the next few months playing out:

…and you can see some wetter than average totals likely for late winter. If it works out as forecast it will be a very different fire season to last year. We had fires breaking out at the end of winter last season and running for months – but right now (and with no guarantees) all models are indicating that we are unlikely to see a repeat this year. The best-of-the-bunch model output is from the IRI probabilistic seasonal climate forecast product, which is based on a re-calibration of model output from U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration North American Multi-Model Ensemble Project (NMME). The output from each NMME model is re-calibrated prior to multi-model ensembling to form reliable probability forecasts….and here is what the latest run is forecasting:

Regardless of the rainfall seen so far this year, and the forecast of a wetter than average late winter and spring, the next couple of weeks are looking fairly dry. We’ve got a decent cold change moving through late tomorrow and into Monday…cold enough to give the chance of some snow flurries on the hills to our west. Here’s the model snow forecast:

The best chance of snow appears to be overnight Monday night around the usual places – Guyra, Walcha and then further south in the Barrington Tops. Until then we’ve got another warm and sunny day through Sunday – enjoy 🙂

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