Dry for now…but longer term?

Looking dry over the next couple of weeks - but then what?

A long time between posts…because not much has been happening weather wise. We’ve had a heap of drier-than-normal weather, and that is reflected in the latest Drought Rating from the BoM. This map is primarily used for assesing fire risk. We’re currently sitting at 10/10 – definitely not something you want to see in Summer. We’ve had a few showers which have made it feel wetter, but the overall pattern has been dry. Here’s how it looks on the BoM map:

And the outlook for the next 10 days is, once again, fairly dry. Here’s an animation from three of the top models showing total forecast rain:

…and you can see there is not much forecast from any of them. We’re likely to see west to south westerly winds from time to time – and actually tomorrow (Tuesday) could feel cold, with much lower temps and a gusty south westerly wind. Here’s the forecast maximum wind gusts for Tuesday lunchtime – you’ll feel that one in Dorrigo:

Longer term the Pacific is still expected to cool in the key Nino 3.4 region – and could still get close to reaching a La Nina state. If this happens then wetter than normal conditions would be likely to develop:

The Indian Ocean is forecast to continue to trend towards a negative state, which again would mean wetter weather would be likely across much of Aus – but worth noting the possibility that it could now head more positive late winter, which is not such good news:

That is still a long way off, and with more cyclones forecast to develop either side of India over the nect couple of weeks we could see some significant forecast changes as we move forwards, so the bottom line is to be aware, but not too concerned at this time. Overall longer term forecast still show it getting wetter – but would love to see some evidence of that coming into the day to day forecasts, and still no sign of that yet. I’ll post again for specific events, and as the longer term forecasts develop. In the meantime you’re welcome to post questions in the comments section online and I’ll answer them as best I can 🙂

This Post Has 2 Comments

  1. Paul netterfield

    Hi Kev. What is the likelihood of early frosts in the Bello area? Thanks Paul

  2. bellingenweather

    Hi Paul. It’s drier than normal right now, so that increases the chance of some frost. Longer term forecast is warmer days and nights however, and climate change is definitely having an impact. Kev

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