It’s been wet – no huge totals but ongoing damp and humid weather for some time. I’m sure we would all like to see some sunshine…and there is a chance of some sunshine at times through the remainder of this week (together with some showers and storms, more likely along the hills). We’ll then see onshore winds strengthen as a cyclone passes to our east late in the weekend:

That strengthening flow will bring and increase in showers late Sunday and through Monday. It could also bring some decent swell along the coast. As with all tropical features it is always worth keeping an eye on them – their path is particularly hard to forecast in the Coral Sea – however for now the main impact looks like it will remain east of us.

What is of more interest is the pattern likely to develop once that low moves away. It is a long way out (and beyond the timeframe that I would usually mention as models become much less reliable beyond a week or so)….however multiple models indicate the potential for a more substantial onshore flow to develop and combine with cooler upper temperatures later next week. Here’s how it looks from a few models:

When you see a few models with the same basic features it increases confidence in the forecast….and if this one comes off as currently forecast then some locations along the east coast will likely see some big totals. Another way to look at the likelyhood is to look at a range of models runs that use slightly differing starting parameters and see if they look similar. In the image below you can see an outlier forecast that is way up there, but you can also see the majority all showing some good falls:

In the run about we can see forecasts from around 80mm through 350mm, with a good range in between. So where does this leave us? We know the ground is fully saturated after recent rains – as such it won’t take much for rivers to rise again should we see more rain. We know that the models are showing some good totals (higher than we have seen in recent events) for our region later next week. Whilst that is a long way off there is some decent model agreement at this time. As such it’s one of those potential events that it’s good to discuss, but not get too stressed about at this time – and don’t be too surprised to see totals increase and decrease numerous times over the coming days…

Thanks to: Kombu Wholefoods | Snapfrozen | Meteologix | Tropical Tidbits