Warming up, windy at times

We’ve got some heat moving through today and tomorrow, then a brief cool down before another warm day on Saturday. Here’s the forecast max temps from the EC model for today through Saturday:

It doesn’t look like we’ll see much rain over the next week – forecast 7 day totals below:

Other models agree, with their accumulating totals over the next 10 days looking like this:

As you can see it looks a little more unsettled towards the end of the run, but that could well change before we get closer. There is also the chance of a storm over today and tomorrow – and some models relfect that with the quick couple of mm totals shown over the period…so something to keep an eye out for.

Looking at the bigger picture the Pacific is sitting in a neutral phase, while the Indian Ocean is heading into record positive territory – which means dry across SE Aus is much more likely:

We should start to see the Indian Ocean back off over coming months, but until we do there is an increased risk of drier than normal conditions. The SAM is also heading into drier (negative) territory. This also increases the chance of drier than normal weather over the coming weeks:

Worth nothing that drier conditions do not necessarily mean dry – just that there is an increased risk of drier than average conditions – we’re likely to see less rain than normal for this time of year. As with the Indian Ocean we’re likely to see the influence of the SAM weaken later this year – so every chance we’ll see some good rains through the end of the year.

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