Summer Storms and Sea Breezes

SUmmer storms and sea breezes - but the fire risk is still there.

We’re still in the fires right now, but a chance to write about something more typically summery. I’ve focussed on the weather down in the valleys, but something else worth mentioning is the likely appearance of our summer storms on the Dividing Range over the next week. To give you some idea of what we might see here is an animation of forecast afternoon lightning from tomorrow through the following week:

With weak steering winds (and the winds that are there are not favourable) we’ll likely see very little in the far North East of NSW, and along the coast – but inland might get some decent totals over a number of days. Here’s the forecast rain over the next 10 days:

With the Bellinger sitting at record low levels you’d have to hope that even if we didn’t get rain in town that there could be enough falling in the headwaters to bring the flow up a little.

Along with the storms inland we’re going to see something else kicking in over the next week – the regular blasting NE seabreeze along the coast. Here’s the gust forecast for Thursday afternoon – could get very windy along the coastal strip:

Despite the inland storms we’re not out of fire season any time soon. The latest SAM forecast has it sitting in the negative for the time being. Combine that with the still strong Indian Ocean Dipole and the threat of more westerly changes is still strong – and with fires burning all around us the sea breeze can also have negative impacts on fire behaviour…but still good to see some signs of change. May the rains reach all of us soon.

This Post Has One Comment

  1. Paul Netterfield

    Wow, that’s really interesting. Weather is complicated, and then you add all of the interactions with the activities that we persue. Thank you

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