Worth noting that this page is not an official weather site – particularly at these challenging times. For official forecasts please visit the BoM site, and for all fire information please use the RFS.

We were fairly lucky today in our valley (and a very different story just to our north and south) with the sea breeze keeping the driest of the air away from our area. Just North, South and West of our area saw strong westerly winds and dangerous fire behaviour.

So where to from here? The next change is the southerly, due through around 3am tomorrow:

This will likely result in increased fire behaviour once again. What it will also bring is a cooler day tomorrow:

Southerly winds will decrease through the day with a sea breeze moving in through the afternoon. We’ll likely see another dry (and likely weaker) change at the end of the week with another for next week. Right now there is the chance of a shower or two but the rain outlook is still pretty bleak. Here’s the latest 10 day outlook from two of the top models:

Not enough rain forecast to give us any real respite, and until it does the threat will remain strong, with active and out of control fires to our North, South and West. There is the ongoing risk of local fires starting as well. As such this is going to be an ongoing problem – smoke in the air and the significant risk of fires through the valley. Until the broader scale weather patterns change this is going to continue. As soon as there is any sign of decent rain I’ll be posting the details. Until that time please continue to be vigilant, listen to warnings and keep safe.