Storms to Start, Fires to Finish?

We’ve got a big trough out west of us right now and that trough has given some big big totals to the west of the Divide. Looks like over 60mm at Bourke since 9am this morning which is fantastic. Right now (Sunday evening) here’s where the rain and storms are located:

That trough will move through tomorrow and then generate a decent low in the Tasman on Tuesday…which gives us two bites of the cherry. Firstly tomorrow we’ll have a chance of showers and storms as the trough moves through. Sadly the trough will be a lot weather when it moves through tomorrow so a 60mm is looking pretty unlikely. Then as the low forms offshore we’ll see southerly winds blasting through on Tuesday. Combine those winds with a very sharp upper trough moving through at the same time and we’ll likely see more showers and storms through the day. We’ve even got a chance of a late shower or storm tonight as the remnants of the inland storms move across. Here’s how the models see the rain through this week – chance of a little tonight, more tomorrow and more again Tuesday:

No huge totals likely – less than 10mm on average from the models, though some locations could see a lot more. The Dorrigo / Coffs range can do well with showers and a southerly blowing. All the local rivers are now getting very low (there was barely a flow in the Kalang as I went past today) so some good rain in the headwaters would be great – just not that sure if this one is going to deliver enough to make a dent in the deficit. Accumulated totals looking like this:

Fingers also crossed for some decent totals early this week as it looks like we’ve got a blasting westerly moving through Thursday and Friday. Could see a dodgy combo of gusty westerly winds and some hot temps come later this week – so would be good to see some good totals over the next couple of days to help knock back the fire ratings come late week. Initial forecast max temps for Friday looking like this:

I’ll post more on the potential fire weather later in the week once we get the early week change through – by that time we’ll know how much rain we’ve seen and have more of an idea about the late week weather. In the meantime happy storm watching! The Grafton radar is down until late tomorrow – a sure sign we’ll see something!

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