At this time of year when the Southern Annular Mode goes negative we see the roaring winds to our south move much further north. Those winds are cold, and come in from the west. And for us that means we usually see much drier weather. This is the same event that hit us through the Spring – but by then the inland is usually warming up quickly, which means we still see the dry and westerly aspects but with the temperatures much higher -> classic bushfire weather.

The great news is that we’re still in winter, and that the index is likely to move more positive again in the coming weeks before we hit bushfire season…but still some indicators that it could turn negative again late winter – something we’ll have to keep an eye on. For now it’s looking like this:

You can see the plunge into the negative. This is great for the ski fields but for us it means drier and colder weather. Here’s the 10 day rain forecast from EC:

…as dry as you’ll see for us. The GFS runs out further to 15 days – and here is the forecast 15 day total from that model:

Very little if any rain for us. Looking further ahead there are some signs, as noted above, that we might see another negative late winter – and that would mean drier weather kicking back in. On the other side we’ve had the BoM go to La Nina watch today – and that means an increased chance of wetter weather through Spring and Summer…So lots to watch longer term, and in the short term we’ll have a whole heap of sunshine. Enjoy!