Trough and possible East Coast Low

Looking increasingly likely that significant areas of the east coast will see some large rain totals next week. A trough will deepen along the coast in response to increasingly cold air up high and very warm ocean temperatures. Current ocean temperatures off our coast are up around 26C:

A cold pool will develop, likely just to our north. This cold pool will bring strong instability as well as drawing winds up high from off the ocean:

There is the chance the trough developing along the coast might even deepen enough to support the formation of an east coast low:

If an east coast low does develop, areas to the south will see some significant impacts. The details are all up in the air right now – but coming into focus with the potential for a significant east coast rain event. Average forecast totals over the next 8 days are very much on the rise:

So what will happen? It’s like putting a pan of water onto boil and trying to forecast where the first bubble will appear on the bottom of the pan – we know it is going to happen, just not sure where. All we know now is that the conditions are conducive to a big rain event, we are a region that is prone to catching some bigger falls in these situations – and there will likely be some BIG falls out there, likely not far from us.

So the details? A chance of a storm this arvo as the instability increases. Overnight the storms die out and showers start developing off the coast, with some likely to move ashore. This is the start of the event. Those showers and rain periods will then be in play for likely the next week. As the event develops we’ll have a better idea of where is likely to see the bigger rains, and I’ll keep posting as it becomes clearer. There is no guarantee we’ll see anything huge, but the chance is there so it’s worth considering what you would need to do (if anything!) if the rivers start to rise.

Leave a Reply