Showers to come, La Nina to follow?

Some showers and storms across our region last night as some cold air moved across up high and combined with daytime surface heating. You could see the instability growing through the afternoon before the cap broke late afternoon time and the storms quickly developed. Only a few mm for most however. Here’s how it developed:

We’ve got the chance of more showers over the next 10 days. All models show us getting some decent totals as the next upper cold changes move through. Here’s the latest 10 day rainfall forecasts from the top models:

Some decent variation in the totals, which is to be expected – but the overall pattern shows it being wetter than it has been recently, with some areas likely to see some decent totals.

Looking further ahead the models are still forecasting it to turn wetter – though perhaps not as strongly as they were indicating some days back. Here’s the latest outlook to the end of the year from the European model. It shows a La Nina-like pattern developing across the Pacific:

You can see the blue (colder) sea surface temperatures develop and spread across most of the eastern Pacific. If the forecast does verify it will mean a much higher chance of wetter than normal conditions across much of Eastern Australia, including our region. It won’t mean wet all the time, but an increased chance of wetter spells, and (likely) shorter drier spells. After last season we’ll all celebrate that one.

A thank you – this blog comes with thanks to two local businesses – many thanks to Snapfrozen and Kombu Wholefoods for making the weather site, blog and floodcam possible.

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