East Coast Low down south, La Nina possible

We’ve got some really cold air likely to move across up high over the next few days…and that instability will generate an East Coast Low as it does so. It looked for a while that the low would form up our way, but most model guidance now shows it forming to our south, giving us some gusty south to south westerly winds while areas to our south get some big falls and gale force winds. Here’s how it looks right now:

It’s still a few days off and the actual location of the low can change – so worth keeping an eye on the models and warnings over the weekend – but right now there is some consistency across models showing it forming far enough away from us that we’ll see little from it. Here’s the forecast rain from two of the top models:

As you can see, some rain likely for us, but nothing like the totals forecast down south. If the models change over the weekend I’ll email out again.

Looking further ahead the models still indicate the chance of seeing a La Nina event later this year – which could make for a wetter summer. Still a long way off and with other climate influencers not playing ball right now we’ve got some way to go…

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