Damp Today, Wet Midweek

Good morning Bellingen Shire and Happy Fathers Day! A bit damp today with a southerly flow moving through following the storms yesterday…in fact a typical post-stormy change day for our region. Here’s how the lightning looked through yesterday – quite a bit across our region:

There will be a few light showers around, particularly against the hills, but also a little sun as well, which will feel warm in the humid air. Here’s the forecast rain totals through today – you can see what focus there is, is up against the hills:

We’ll see some sunshine and drier weather back for Monday and Tuesday, but then come mid week we’ll have a combination of a high moving across the Tasman to our south and some cold air moving through up high. That high will direct onshore south easterly winds across our region. Add the cold air up high and we’ll see some decent instability – and thus showers and spells of rain – moving in mid to late week. Here’s how it looks on the map:

We could see some decent totals accumulating over time. Here’s how it looks from the EC model:

Those are 10 day totals but we’re unlikely to see much outside the mid week wet spell so you can take the totals as a rough indication of what we’ll see Wednesday through Friday…so could be the wettest spell we’ve seen for some time, particularly close to the Dorrigo / Coffs range and the Promised Land as the south easterly winds come up against the hills.

Looking further ahead it could dry up for a week or two after this upcoming wet spell, but the models then show increased chances of wetter weather as we head towards the end of the month. Here’s the latest 6 week outlook from the CFSv2 model:

…so right now it looks like the long term forecasts that I’ve been posting for months are coming together, with conditions looking different to last year. We should see wetter than average conditions persist right through until early next year. There will be some drier spells in there, but unlikely to see anything like a repeat of last year. That definitely makes for a Happy Fathers Day!

Images- with thanks, as always to Weatherzone, Tropical Tidbits, Meteologix and Landgate. Animations via those sites and also generated by Bellingen Weather.

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