Rain coming!

Three charts for you that show forecast rain totals for next week from the onshore shower stream likely (and if reading this on Facebook you’ll need to click the link to see them all 🙂 ):

Latest Run:

Previous model run:

And the one before that:

So what can we tell from these runs?

(1) as per the post yesterday we’re looking at some onshore showers and perhaps even longer periods of rain through the middle of next week.
(2) It looks like there could be some decent totals around
(3) Exactly where will see the bigger totals is still up in the air but is likely to be somewhere on the Mid North Coast.

Still a decent time off for this upcoming event and with 4 model runs per day we’ll likely see another 12 to 14 different outcomes before the rain arrives – but as the event gets closer we should see the totals and location start to settle down. So, right now it’s a good time for the heads up that after the heat next week there is a good chance of some decent showers and potentially decent rain totals next week…but right now still too early to know if we’ll see the big totals or not. I’ll keep watching the model runs and once things settle down I’ll post again with an update 🙂

Hot this weekend, showers next week?

Despite the clickbait hype on some weather pages the cyclone did, as expected, head off away from Australia. Not much impact for us at all (though if you looked hard to the east yesterday you could just see the upper cloud from the system).

Coming up we’ve got some beautiful Autumn weather and it may even get a little hot at times. Here’s for the forecast temps for Sunday by way of example:

Mainly dry too over the next few days, but by the time we head into the middle of next week we could see the winds coming in from the east once again with temperatures dropping and stream showers coming onshore. That is sometime off right now and heaps of time for it to change, but right now looking pretty similar to this through the middle of next week…you can see the showers streaming in (and a predicted significant cyclone off the west coast):

Should this pattern come off we could see some reasonable totals accumulating over a few days with local river rises possible…though way too far off for any concerns at this time. The chart shows total accumulated rainfall (and also shows the currently forecast path of the west coast cyclone):

So right now it’s time to enjoy what could be one of the last blasts of summer this weekend, and look forward to the chance of more showers next week 🙂

Is it going to rain?

It was hot and steamy yesterday, with thunder rolling around during the afternoon (though much of it seemed to miss the valley again). Starting the day today with a heap of cloud and much cooler temperatures. There is a lot of instability around but with warm oceans and a cooler landmass most of the shower activity is out in the ocean right now:

That matches what the models are showing for this time of day as well. I always try to check what the models  had forecast against what is happening – if the forecast to that time is pretty much on the mark then we can place more confidence in what they are forecasting is coming up. Looking at the model forecast for right now…

…and it is pretty much on the mark. That model (and a couple of other key models) is forecasting some rain and showers through the day today with those showers and storms likely to increase in intensity through tonight and tomorrow as some colder air moves through overhead:

As with all showers and storms some areas (as yesterday) will see some good totals while others see much less. Let’s hope we are in the firing line this time.

Looking further ahead it looks like getting a little drier for the rest of this week with just a few showers from time to time…but then the following week is showing some signs of something potentially coming together in the Coral Sea, as well as wetter weather for us. A long way off and this season has been one where the models have let us down with long term (week to two week) rain forecasts, so I’ll keep an eye on it and post again when we have more clarity.

Showers are coming!

We’ve got showers and perhaps storms incoming over the next few days, with winds turning onshore as a trough moves closer. Ocean temperatures are pretty steamy out there at the moment:

Temps over 27C along the coast – there is a LOT of energy out there. Great to swim in, but great rain producers as well. So good that even without perfect atmospheric conditions we can still get good falls. Onshore winds and a nearby trough look like producing some decent totals for us. Here is the 4 day forecast from one model (all models show some decent totals, but as is the case with showers they differ as to who will see the biggest falls):

You can see totals around 100mm forecast for the valleys and over the ranges. Don’t take the totals as gospel – inevitably in these situations some will likely see more while other locations could see considerably less. When the rain does fall however it could come down pretty hard so flash flooding is a concern. Once we get through the next four days we’ll see showers continue but decrease in intensity. Here’s the 4 to 8 day total:

You can see more showers along the coast. With the winds likely to swing more southerly the biggest falls will sit along the coast rather than inland over the hills. The winds and cloud will keep temps down a little…though with such warm oceans it will remain fairly humid, though still fresher than recently 🙂

Model images with thanks to Weatherzone and BSCH.

Storms Inland then shower…

So what is coming up weather wise? Well after a hot day yesterday it is, as expected, much cooler today. We’ve got a heap of cloud near the coast but inland they started the day less cloudy so have warned up quickly with storms now forming. There is a trough sitting from NW Qld into NE NSW – and you can see the storms forecast to form along it this afternoon:

You can see it stays drier close to the coast despite the cloud. Tomorrow is looking fairly similar, but storms start becoming more extensive as the trough deepens. We could see a storm or two closer to our region through the afternoon:

By the time we hit Sunday the trough has moved closer to the coast and we’ll likely see much more in the way of showers and storms as we head through the afternoon and into the evening:

Those showers and storms will likely continue overnight as winds turn more onshore once again. By the time we hit Monday morning there will be showers over the ocean, likely moving inland through the day. Could see some reasonable totals if you catch some of the beefier showers:

Beyond that time winds will swing south to south-easterly and bring more showers as we head through the middle of the week. Some models bring us some decent totals while others are much more conservative – I’ll update on totals as things become clear, but right now it looks wetter, but no flooding rains looking that likely. Could still see some decent totals, getting perhaps close to 100mm over the next week for some of us, higher possible for the usual locations:

Staying cooler with winds coming from the south east – no more heatwaves over the next week or so 🙂 Images all (c) BoM.

Hot Then Wet?

That wetter spell looks like it is still creeping up on us…but before that we’ve got some heat. Today kicks off the heat with hotter air being drawn across our region from inland. 1pm temps today look like this:

Getting hotter again tomorrow with temps in the mid 30s likely across our region:

But then we start to see what could be quite a significant change as a change moves up and winds turn from westerly to easterly. Storms will kick off over the hills through Saturday, though likely missing the coast:

As winds continue to turn onshore it is looking increasingly wet as we head into Sunday:

It then looks like it could remain wet at times through next week with onshore winds pumping showers and potentially some longer spells of rain onto the coast of NE NSW and SE QLD. Overall totals are up the air and are likely to change considerably depending on subtle features moving in from the ocean, but the BoM WATL map offers some ideas – you can see the real focus over NE NSW with totals over 100mm possible:

Flooding? We’ve  been sitting with lower rainfall totals right through the summer but as we head into a wetter spell it’s worth keeping an eye on the forecasts and posts – we live in one of the most flood-prone regions of NSW and there is the potential for some river rises.

Where was the rain?

All around us yesterday. Sure many of you heard the storms rolling down the dividing range between Dorrigo and Coffs. They brought a very decent 75mm to Bonville yesterday. There was also a good storm that moved through to the south of town through the day yesterday, then more following up last night. 15mm in town over the last 24 hours which is a start…

Today we’re looking at a southerly change moving up from the south through the middle of the day. This will likely generate some showers as it moves through and clears out the really humid conditions. 2pm winds below – you can see the southerly roaring up the coast:

   The humidity levels will drop with the change – you can see the lower humidity levels to the south moving north with the change in this 2pm chart:

Once the change moves through it will dry up. Not much more in the way of significant rain likely this working week once todays change has moved through…but as I posted about over the weekend there are signs of a wetter spell coming up in the not too distant future. I’ll post more on that as we get closer. In the meantime enjoy the cooler change when it arrives!

Getting hot, storms later…

Great animation from above this morning:

You can see the early cloud clearing quickly from the coastal plains, before the lumpy clouds start forming inland as the day heats up. Already into the 30s out there and going to keep on climbing for some time. Blue skies and pretty dry out there right now:

But come 1pm the temps are really climbing and that will send the seabreeze heading inland towards the hills. It’s pretty humid (OK, really humid) out there so as the seabreeze starts moving inland check out what happens to the winds – this is the 4pm chart:

Winds forecast to come in from all directions and converge over our region. The wind cannot go down into the earth, it can only go up…and when it contains as much water as it does today then storms are a good chance this arvo. Forecast rainfall to 4pm today looks a little different to the 10am chart:

You can see the rain forecast to fall up and down the coast, with a focus where those winds are forecast to converge. These are storms so some areas will see some and others miss out…but today is a pretty decent chance of seeing some decent rain rates under any storms that do form.

Looking like showers again tomorrow before the change moves through and the weather dries up again. Going to cool down some though, which has to be a good thing!

Getting Wetter?

Finally looking like we could be seeing some wetter weather coming up – and that is certainly the case across far NE NSW over the next 3 days with flood watches in place for some locations. Here’s the 3 day rainfall outlook until late Saturday:

You can see big falls likely up around the border, but much lower totals likely for us. However there is another change moving up the coast through Sunday. That change will hook into the much wetter and more humid air across NSW and increase rain for us all. By the end of Sunday it’s looking like this:

Not much increase in the totals across the far NE of the state, but look how much our totals have increased – some more good falls looking likely for us as we move through the latter half of the weekend. Great follow up rains!

That’s likely not the end of the story though…that change moving up through Sunday will clear the rain out for a few days…but then it looks like the wetter pattern could return. Latest modelling shows these totals over the next couple of weeks. It’s worth bearing in mind that modelling at that time frame is challenging for all models, and that totals shown below include the rain detailed in the images above…but still looks like we could see some decent totals over the next fortnight:

No big temperatures likely over the next couple of weeks, but definitely humid at times. Still a lot warmer than over in Western Europe. Here’s the forecast snow accumulations over the next 10 days for England:

Could see some big snow over there over the next week or so. The culprit is a Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event that has raised temperatures over the North Pole massively, and sent all the cold down across Europe. Some very low temperatures likely there with significant snow likely. At the same time the warm temps across the Pole will likely add to the record low sea ice in the region.

I’ll post more about the upcoming rain over the coming days. In the meantime it’s already falling heavily across SE Qld – look forward to seeing more down here soon!

COLD in Europe, rain for us?

We’re going to be slowly leaving summer behind us soon, and heading into a slightly cooler Autumn. Still hot here for now though – and spare a thought for everyone in Western Europe – going to get very cold and snowy there over the next week. The video below shows how much above / below normal temperatures are likely to get:

Back closer to home we’re likely to see some rain tomorrow as a change moves up the coast. Likely to be fairly showery in nature so we could see a heap, or we could see much of it move to our north once again. Best chance in some time of decent rain though…get ready for it to green up again!

Forecast rain over the next week:

By no means certain we’ll see that much, but the increased rain on the chart does highlight that models are *starting* to see a potential change in the patterns, with increased rainfall looking more likely over coming weeks. Now a waiting game, with fingers crossed…