Looking increasingly likely that significant areas of the east coast will see some large rain totals next week. A trough will deepen along the coast in response to increasingly cold air up high and very warm ocean temperatures. Current ocean temperatures off our coast are up around 26C:
A cold pool will develop, likely just to our north. This cold pool will bring strong instability as well as drawing winds up high from off the ocean:
There is the chance the trough developing along the coast might even deepen enough to support the formation of an east coast low:
If an east coast low does develop, areas to the south will see some significant impacts. The details are all up in the air right now – but coming into focus with the potential for a significant east coast rain event. Average forecast totals over the next 8 days are very much on the rise:
So what will happen? It’s like putting a pan of water onto boil and trying to forecast where the first bubble will appear on the bottom of the pan – we know it is going to happen, just not sure where. All we know now is that the conditions are conducive to a big rain event, we are a region that is prone to catching some bigger falls in these situations – and there will likely be some BIG falls out there, likely not far from us.
So the details? A chance of a storm this arvo as the instability increases. Overnight the storms die out and showers start developing off the coast, with some likely to move ashore. This is the start of the event. Those showers and rain periods will then be in play for likely the next week. As the event develops we’ll have a better idea of where is likely to see the bigger rains, and I’ll keep posting as it becomes clearer. There is no guarantee we’ll see anything huge, but the chance is there so it’s worth considering what you would need to do (if anything!) if the rivers start to rise.
After some disagreement all models are tonight showing the potential for some big fall somewhere along the east coast. Nice one EC for being the first model to pick the upcoming event. A pool of colder upper air is forecast to develop close to us early next week. You can see the yellow circle across our region on this upper temperature chart:
Once you combine cold temperatures up high with our very warm ocean temperatures and onshore winds, it is a pretty good bet that someone is going to get very wet. Sit to the north of the surface feature and you’ll likely see westerly winds and little rain…sit to the south and you’ll see easterly winds and flooding rains. And right now it is almost impossible to say exactly who will see what. Here is the current thinking from three model runs:
The ECMWF (European) Model:
The GFS (American) model:
The ACCESS (Australian) model:
All have a heap of rain falling but with a focus on different areas. I won’t post all upcoming model runs, but once things settle down and we have more information on likely impacts, if any, for our region I’ll post another update 🙂
Still looking like we are on track for a wetter change this week. Winds should be turning onshore through today, with showers moving in from later on today. Different totals from different models right now, with the European model giving the highest totals (over the next 10 days):
Before we panic…the American model is, for once, showing more restraint:
At times like this what you usually end up with is something in between. Either way after the recent dry spell the rain will be welcome – good to get some decent falls in before we head into winter. Onshore winds, some showers and more cloud means that the temperatures will be taking a bit of a dive, with tops heading more for the lower 20s. Whether we see enough rain to cause any river rises is up in the air for now (haha 🙂 ) – I’ll post more on that as it becomes clearer. Whatever happens the rain will be falling over a good number of days, giving it time to soak in rather than all run off which is good news. Enjoy the change!
It is going to be a warm one out there today. Actually warm doesn’t do it justice – how about a record breaking day of heat across much of SE Australia. Check out the temperature anomalies for this afternoon. The anomalies show how much hotter or cooler it is compared to usual for this time of year:
That is an astonishing plume of heat across much of SE Aus. Multiple records likely to fall today. Tomorrow and Saturday sees the heat move towards the north east…so we’ll likely see even more of the heat along the NE coast through tomorrow and Saturday. You can see the change in the the temperature anomaly charts for tomorrow afternoon and Saturday afternoon:
What you can also see in the charts above is the much cooler air moving into SA and Vic. We’ll likely not see that much of the cool air, but what that change will do is bring in eventually is a change in wind direction, with winds turning more onshore across our region through the middle of next week, bringing some cloud, showers and lower temperatures:
Until then take care in the heat, summer is not done yet!
How nice has the rain been over the last few days. We’ve been pretty lucky, with other areas missing out. You can see how isolated the rain has been in this map showing rain this month to date across NSW:
This map below is used by fire services to help assess fire risk. It shows how dry it has been the last 20 days across NSW – you can see the drier areas right around us, with the inland really missing out on any decent rains recently:
So despite recent rains across our region, many other locations are running dry during this traditionally wetter time of year. Looking ahead there is little rain in sight over the next 10 days. Here’s the forecast rainfall from two models, the first from GFS:
..and this from ECMWF:
When models line up like this it’s a good sign that they are on the right path and more likely to be right. Little rain likely over the next 10 days, temps in the mid 20s, lots of sunshine likely 🙂 Great for us that have seen the rain, possibly a worry for others who are still dry.
Some weather news and weather station updates…
The weather station is getting some much deserved TLC. There are two parts broken on the station and both spare parts are ordered and should be here within a week. Davis Instruments are aware how much the station is used in Bellingen so are rushing replacements to us. The river and rain pages are still up and running, using data fed in from the BoM.
The webcam is getting some love as well – expect to see some improvements on the page over the next week.
The weather today – actually a chance of some storms this arvo, mainly on the hills but potentially making it down into the valleys as well…with a chance of a shower or storm closer to the coast too. We’ve had a change move through, dropping temps but also bringing some instability and the chance of some rain. Here’s forecast totals for today:
Not much as you can see – suspect we could actually see higher totals if we get any storms, but that will depend in part on the cloud. We need some heat to generate decent storms so might be dependent on ocean heat generating storms closer to coast and moving inland.
After today….likely back to the dry for the next few days with some more awesome Autumnal weather. Enjoy!
Three charts for you that show forecast rain totals for next week from the onshore shower stream likely (and if reading this on Facebook you’ll need to click the link to see them all 🙂 ):
Previous model run:
And the one before that:
So what can we tell from these runs?
(1) as per the post yesterday we’re looking at some onshore showers and perhaps even longer periods of rain through the middle of next week.
(2) It looks like there could be some decent totals around
(3) Exactly where will see the bigger totals is still up in the air but is likely to be somewhere on the Mid North Coast.
Still a decent time off for this upcoming event and with 4 model runs per day we’ll likely see another 12 to 14 different outcomes before the rain arrives – but as the event gets closer we should see the totals and location start to settle down. So, right now it’s a good time for the heads up that after the heat next week there is a good chance of some decent showers and potentially decent rain totals next week…but right now still too early to know if we’ll see the big totals or not. I’ll keep watching the model runs and once things settle down I’ll post again with an update 🙂
Despite the clickbait hype on some weather pages the cyclone did, as expected, head off away from Australia. Not much impact for us at all (though if you looked hard to the east yesterday you could just see the upper cloud from the system).
Coming up we’ve got some beautiful Autumn weather and it may even get a little hot at times. Here’s for the forecast temps for Sunday by way of example:
Mainly dry too over the next few days, but by the time we head into the middle of next week we could see the winds coming in from the east once again with temperatures dropping and stream showers coming onshore. That is sometime off right now and heaps of time for it to change, but right now looking pretty similar to this through the middle of next week…you can see the showers streaming in (and a predicted significant cyclone off the west coast):
Should this pattern come off we could see some reasonable totals accumulating over a few days with local river rises possible…though way too far off for any concerns at this time. The chart shows total accumulated rainfall (and also shows the currently forecast path of the west coast cyclone):
So right now it’s time to enjoy what could be one of the last blasts of summer this weekend, and look forward to the chance of more showers next week 🙂
It was hot and steamy yesterday, with thunder rolling around during the afternoon (though much of it seemed to miss the valley again). Starting the day today with a heap of cloud and much cooler temperatures. There is a lot of instability around but with warm oceans and a cooler landmass most of the shower activity is out in the ocean right now:
That matches what the models are showing for this time of day as well. I always try to check what the models had forecast against what is happening – if the forecast to that time is pretty much on the mark then we can place more confidence in what they are forecasting is coming up. Looking at the model forecast for right now…
…and it is pretty much on the mark. That model (and a couple of other key models) is forecasting some rain and showers through the day today with those showers and storms likely to increase in intensity through tonight and tomorrow as some colder air moves through overhead:
As with all showers and storms some areas (as yesterday) will see some good totals while others see much less. Let’s hope we are in the firing line this time.
Looking further ahead it looks like getting a little drier for the rest of this week with just a few showers from time to time…but then the following week is showing some signs of something potentially coming together in the Coral Sea, as well as wetter weather for us. A long way off and this season has been one where the models have let us down with long term (week to two week) rain forecasts, so I’ll keep an eye on it and post again when we have more clarity.
We’ve got showers and perhaps storms incoming over the next few days, with winds turning onshore as a trough moves closer. Ocean temperatures are pretty steamy out there at the moment:
Temps over 27C along the coast – there is a LOT of energy out there. Great to swim in, but great rain producers as well. So good that even without perfect atmospheric conditions we can still get good falls. Onshore winds and a nearby trough look like producing some decent totals for us. Here is the 4 day forecast from one model (all models show some decent totals, but as is the case with showers they differ as to who will see the biggest falls):
You can see totals around 100mm forecast for the valleys and over the ranges. Don’t take the totals as gospel – inevitably in these situations some will likely see more while other locations could see considerably less. When the rain does fall however it could come down pretty hard so flash flooding is a concern. Once we get through the next four days we’ll see showers continue but decrease in intensity. Here’s the 4 to 8 day total:
You can see more showers along the coast. With the winds likely to swing more southerly the biggest falls will sit along the coast rather than inland over the hills. The winds and cloud will keep temps down a little…though with such warm oceans it will remain fairly humid, though still fresher than recently 🙂
Model images with thanks to Weatherzone and BSCH.