Chance of storms then cooler

We’ve got a warm day today, with temps heading up towards 30C:

Once again this is ahead of a cool change which will move through overnight. That change moving up will likely trigger some storms over the ranges to our west through this afternoon. Those storms will then move south east towards the coast. We’re at the edge of the risk area with most storms likely to our south and west, but still a chance we’ll see something kick off. Storm forecast for today like this – you can see how close to the edge we sit with storms much more likely inland and to our south:

After that change moves through tomorrow looks a LOT cooler with the chance of showers – a completely different day to today. Here’s forecast max temps for tomorrow afternoon:

Once we move through tomorrow we’ve got another few drier and sunnier days coming up again, though this time we’re unlikely to see so much of the warmer weather before the next change moves through on Monday. That next change will combine with some decent cold air up high to increase instability and the chance of showers and storms. Total forecast rain over the next 8 days looks like this:

…however some models are showing totals higher than those shown here. With the cold air up high the potential for higher rain totals and a more dynamic surface pattern are certainly there – I’ll post more over the weekend.  Beyond that it looks like a similar pattern ahead – changes coming through but with the ongoing risk of showers and storms, so dry at times but by no means dry right though.

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