Chance of storms then cooler

We’ve got a warm day today, with temps heading up towards 30C:

Once again this is ahead of a cool change which will move through overnight. That change moving up will likely trigger some storms over the ranges to our west through this afternoon. Those storms will then move south east towards the coast. We’re at the edge of the risk area with most storms likely to our south and west, but still a chance we’ll see something kick off. Storm forecast for today like this – you can see how close to the edge we sit with storms much more likely inland and to our south:

After that change moves through tomorrow looks a LOT cooler with the chance of showers – a completely different day to today. Here’s forecast max temps for tomorrow afternoon:

Once we move through tomorrow we’ve got another few drier and sunnier days coming up again, though this time we’re unlikely to see so much of the warmer weather before the next change moves through on Monday. That next change will combine with some decent cold air up high to increase instability and the chance of showers and storms. Total forecast rain over the next 8 days looks like this:

…however some models are showing totals higher than those shown here. With the cold air up high the potential for higher rain totals and a more dynamic surface pattern are certainly there – I’ll post more over the weekend.  Beyond that it looks like a similar pattern ahead – changes coming through but with the ongoing risk of showers and storms, so dry at times but by no means dry right though.

Lots to talk about…

There is a lot happening in the weather world at the moment so going to post here as we can mix images and posts…

We’ve had some good rain over the last couple of weeks – and now with temperatures climbing and the sun shining everything is starting to grow quickly. This image shows how much of our usual September total NSW has received so far:

Only a third of the way into the month but already over our total September average…

The rain so far could be good news – there is still the chance of an El Nino forming…and we have also got the Antarctic Oscillation likely to head back into the negatives over the next couple of weeks:

The AAO is a rough measure of how far north or south winter weather systems and high pressure systems sit. Through August the AAO sat in the negative, and we had bush fires and dry weather as a result. It then turned strongly positive in early September and we saw some really good rains as a result. The AAO is very hard to predict but right now it looks like it could head back into the negative again later this month – which increases the chance (but no guarantee) of drier weather once again. The recent rains should help alleviate the impact of a drier spell – it will take some time before fire risks increase again.

Looking over the next week we should see a lot of dry weather across our region with just a few showers or storms, more likely on the hills. Here’s the forecast rainfall from a couple of the top models through this weekend:

Forecast rain from the ECMWF model
Forecast rain from the German model

With Spring now well established drier weather means it will warm up quickly. Each day from now through Saturday will be warmer than the one before…so by the time we hit the weekend we’ll likely be in the low 30s:

Forecast Maximum Temps Saturday

All pretty usual Spring like weather coming up for us….but right now the Northern Hemisphere tropics are in overdrive. There are numerous significant storms around – including Florence which is likely to hit the US later this week. Here’s the (beautiful but scary) current view of the tropical Atlantic:

…and here is the forecast rainfall across parts of the east coast of the USA over the next 10 days – if this comes off they will be facing some devastating flooding:

That’ll do for now – I’ll come back with an update in the next few days. I’ll be retweeting the most interesting posts on Florence on the Bello Weather twitter feed if you want to keep up with what is happening on the other side of the world, otherwise look forward to sharing more local weather news with you soon!

Make the most of it!

How nice has the rain been over the last few days. We’ve been pretty lucky, with other areas missing out. You can see how isolated the rain has been in this map showing rain this month to date across NSW:

This map below is used by fire services to help assess fire risk. It shows how dry it has been the last 20 days across NSW – you can see the drier areas right around us, with the inland really missing out on any decent rains recently:

 So despite recent rains across our region, many other locations are running dry during this traditionally wetter time of year. Looking ahead there is little rain in sight over the next 10 days. Here’s the forecast rainfall from two models, the first from GFS:

..and this from ECMWF:

When models line up like this it’s a good sign that they are on the right path and more likely to be right. Little rain likely over the next 10 days, temps in the mid 20s, lots of sunshine likely 🙂 Great for us that have seen the rain, possibly a worry for others who are still dry.

Storms possible today, then drier again…

Some weather news and weather station updates…

The weather station is getting some much deserved TLC. There are two parts broken on the station and both spare parts are ordered and should be here within a week. Davis Instruments are aware how much the station is used in Bellingen so are rushing replacements to us. The river and rain pages are still up and running, using data fed in from the BoM.

The webcam is getting some love as well – expect to see some improvements on the page over the next week.

The weather today – actually a chance of some storms this arvo, mainly on the hills but potentially making it down into the valleys as well…with a chance of a shower or storm closer to the coast too. We’ve had a change move through, dropping temps but also bringing some instability and the chance of some rain. Here’s forecast totals for today:

Not much as you can see – suspect we could actually see higher totals if we get any storms, but that will depend in part on the cloud. We need some heat to generate decent storms so might be dependent on ocean heat generating storms closer to coast and moving inland.

After today….likely back to the dry for the next few days with some more awesome Autumnal weather. Enjoy!

Gratitude

With not much happening weather wise (other than increasing temperatures over the next week) a post of gratitude. Thanks to Kombu Wholefoods for giving me the time to put the posts together as well as the infrastructure to host and update the website and floodcam. Thanks to the awesome crew at Bellingen Ambulance station for happily hosting the weather station. Thanks to Bellingen Council for working hard whenever I ask to keep the view from the floodcam to the bridge as clear as can be. Thanks to this amazing weather community for all the comments, suggestions, emails and thanks over the years.

 

Welcome to our News / Blog page

With Facebook changing the way it works it will likely get harder to get to see all our posts…so starting now we are going to be posting them onto our news page (at www.bellingenweather.org/news). The posts will be automatically posted to this Facebook page and also to our new Twitter account (twitter.com/BelloWeather) so feel free to grab the news and make comments wherever you want! Images will be posted in full and in context on our news page…not sure how they will come out on Facebook and Twitter but will work to make sure they work as best they can for everyone, regardless of whether you use the news page, Facebook page or Twitter.