Rain is coming…

We’ve got a dynamic and likely quite wet spell of weather coming up. This animation shows the weather forecast for the next 10 days – you can see that once the change moves through on Wednesday we get into a pattern of onshore winds with showers and longer spells of rain:

There could be some decent falls coming up – but this event will likely be categorised by how long it lasts rather than a huge fall on one day. The accumulated rainfall for the next 10 days shows it well, with the totals increasing day by day rather than a huge fall on any one day:

I’ve selected late next week to show some of the totals forecast by the models. You can see it more dramatically in these forecast rain totals from ECMWF:

…and GFS:

Both show some BIG totals looking likely…but don’t focus on the numbers – more on the indication of wet weather ahead and some decent rain totals likely, which over a week or so could accumulate into some higher end totals by the time it clears through. Usually when we see these totals forecast it is from an event lasting a couple of days – and over a short period of time such totals would likely bring some flooding. With this event forecast to last for a significant period of time it means the ground has more time to absorb the rain, meaning lower fast river rises…but also worth noting that a couple of models show a low forming offshore across SE Qld or NE NSW – and if that happened we could see some bigger totals if it formed just to our north.

Before we kick off the rain we’ve got another two days of storms likely. Some around today, much as yesterday, but a significant increase likely tomorrow as the change moves up and turns winds more onshore. The forecast temps over the next 10 days show it well – much higher daytime peaks forecast today and tomorrow, with much lower totals to follow as cloud and showers increase and winds turn more onshore:

So an interesting spell of weather coming up. I’ll post more, both here and on the Facebook page, as we head into it.

Gratitude: Many thanks as always to weather.us and tropicaltibdits for the charts and images.

Still looking wetter…for some…

After some disagreement all models are tonight showing the potential for some big fall somewhere along the east coast. Nice one EC for being the first model to pick the upcoming event. A pool of colder upper air is forecast to develop close to us early next week. You can see the yellow circle across our region on this upper temperature chart:

Once you combine cold temperatures up high with our very warm ocean temperatures and onshore winds, it is a pretty good bet that someone is going to get very wet. Sit to the north of the surface feature and you’ll likely see westerly winds and little rain…sit to the south and you’ll see easterly winds and flooding rains. And right now it is almost impossible to say exactly who will see what. Here is the current thinking from three model runs:

The ECMWF (European) Model:

 The GFS (American) model:

The ACCESS (Australian) model:

All have a heap of rain falling but with a focus on different areas. I won’t post all upcoming model runs, but once things settle down and we have more information on likely impacts, if any, for our region I’ll post another update 🙂