Ouch! Drier and Hotter than normal forecast for Winter

The latest BoM winter forecast has just come out – and it is looking much drier and warmer than normal across much of SE Australia. Four images below tell the story:

Rainfall Forecast:

Maximum Temperature (likelihood of the maximum daytime temperature being above normal):

Minimum Temperature (likelihood of the minimum nighttime temperature being above normal):

You can see how much drier than normal it has been so far in 2018 in this rainfall percentage map from the BoM:

We should still see some rain through winter – we’re not looking at dry-right-through weather. We’re also lucky to be located close to the ocean – this means we are likely to still see some showers or periods of rain when a change comes through and the stars align. There is also always a decent chance of a winter East Coast Low (which can wipe out anomalies overnight) – but overall there is a greater than normal chance of dry over the three months of winter. Now let’s see what happens.

Make the most of it!

How nice has the rain been over the last few days. We’ve been pretty lucky, with other areas missing out. You can see how isolated the rain has been in this map showing rain this month to date across NSW:

This map below is used by fire services to help assess fire risk. It shows how dry it has been the last 20 days across NSW – you can see the drier areas right around us, with the inland really missing out on any decent rains recently:

 So despite recent rains across our region, many other locations are running dry during this traditionally wetter time of year. Looking ahead there is little rain in sight over the next 10 days. Here’s the forecast rainfall from two models, the first from GFS:

..and this from ECMWF:

When models line up like this it’s a good sign that they are on the right path and more likely to be right. Little rain likely over the next 10 days, temps in the mid 20s, lots of sunshine likely 🙂 Great for us that have seen the rain, possibly a worry for others who are still dry.