Rain Coming?

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We had one change move through overnight bringing us a little rain – only 1.2mm recorded in town. The next change moves through over the weekend and once again it will bring some bigger falls inland. As this one moves towards the coast there are some signs however that we could be in sweeter spot this time around, with winds turning onshore temporarily late Sunday and through Monday. With a cold change moving through up high there will be some decent instability around. Combine that instability with a whole heap of moisture moving in from the north west and onshore winds at low levels…and we could see some decent falls. It is still some time off so there is time for us to move back out of favour but right now we’ve got the models looking like this:

European Model – the best of the bunch:

American model – next best model around:

German model:

…and the Australian model – this is the only one not so keen right now…but was also the best at predicting the last system so definitely worth giving it a consideration:

I’ll post more as we get closer, but we are sitting below average right now and this is a good time to get some rain into the earth. Fingers crossed it comes together.

Not much rain – but getting much colder

Not much rain coming up in the next week. Here’s the forecast totals over the next 9 days:

With winter here right now the dry usually means one thing -the chance of some cold nights! Not looking too cold tonight:

…but with a cold dry change sweeping through this weekend it’s going to be a cold start to next week. These are the forecast temps as we wake up next Monday morning – some decent frosts around:

…time to get the firewood in. Always the chance of a few showers over the next couple of weeks but no signs of any bigger rainy spells at this time – we were very blessed to get the rains last week.

Ouch! Drier and Hotter than normal forecast for Winter

The latest BoM winter forecast has just come out – and it is looking much drier and warmer than normal across much of SE Australia. Four images below tell the story:

Rainfall Forecast:

Maximum Temperature (likelihood of the maximum daytime temperature being above normal):

Minimum Temperature (likelihood of the minimum nighttime temperature being above normal):

You can see how much drier than normal it has been so far in 2018 in this rainfall percentage map from the BoM:

We should still see some rain through winter – we’re not looking at dry-right-through weather. We’re also lucky to be located close to the ocean – this means we are likely to still see some showers or periods of rain when a change comes through and the stars align. There is also always a decent chance of a winter East Coast Low (which can wipe out anomalies overnight) – but overall there is a greater than normal chance of dry over the three months of winter. Now let’s see what happens.

Warm today, cooler tomorrow

A beautiful start to the day today – and likely to remain pretty awesome right through the weekend. We’ve got a cold front moving across today -you can see it in the latest satellite image below, courtesy of bsch.com.au:

That front is drawing warm north westerly winds ahead of it, and we’ll see some parts of NE NSW come close to 30C today. Not bad for the last month of Autumn (and did you know the sun starts getting stronger again from next month!) Here’s the forecast 1pm temps for today:

As that front moves through there is a chance of the odd storm – here’re the storm forecast for 4pm today:

If we do get a storm there’s a chance of hail and strong winds, but any storms will be hit and miss. A lot cooler tomorrow for the show once the change has come through. 1pm temps for tomorrow:

Something else to come from that change – the humidity levels are going to drop through the floor – here’s the forecast dew points for tomorrow – looking very low:

And with the rain next week? Right now nobody can tell what will happen. We’ll have a combination of warm and wet onsh0re winds meeting up with a cooling upper atmosphere. Some models show a heap of rain, others show it all to see, and one even has some snow the central tablelands…I’ll post again when we have some better ideas of what will happen. In the meantime enjoy the remnants of summer today ๐Ÿ™‚

Getting Wetter?

First hints of some wetter weather possible next week with onshore winds coming in off a warm ocean. What sort of totals? Way too early to have any idea. As is usual at this time frame some models showing heaps while others show very little. A couple of options in the images below – BUT take the totals with a pinch of salt, likely to change a lot over the next few days as the models get a handle on what is likely to happen – we could see nothing, we could see heaps.

First image from the latest US model run:

This is from the Australian model this morning:

But the latest European run doesn’t think much of it:

If this event does come off it we are more likely to see rain and showers move inland, unlike the offshore thunderfest a few weeks back. Once it becomes clearer I’ll post againย 

Looking warmer and drier to start May

Welcome to May! Some beautiful weather coming up (unless you’re looking for cold and wet) – lots of sunshine and not much rain around over the next week. The BoM Climate Outlook for May is out and the first image is worth checking out. The chance of exceeding regular max temps across this month for NE NSW:

The scale is maxed out right across our region, so looks like Autumn could be hanging on for some time to come. Second image shows total forecast rainfall over the next 10 days – not much coming up:

 

Showers coming ashore…

We’ve had some showers come across last night and will likely see more later today. The heaviest of the showers however have been streaming north along the coast. You can see the steering winds at 10am today in this wind chart from Weatherzone (steering winds are the winds at the height in the sky that decide which direction showers and storms will move – this is different to surface wind direction):

…but by 10pm tonight the steering winds are turning more onshore:

…so we we have into tonight there is a greater chance for showers to move across our region. By 10pm Monday night you can see how strong the steering winds have become, sending showers clattering onto the coast and inland:

Looking at this stage that we will be in showery conditions until midweek, when it is looking possible for a change to push the unsettled weather out to sea. There is a chance of some very decent falls over the next few days with river rises possible. Total forecast rain over the next 4 days currently looking like this:

Details are still sketchy as to exactly what will pan out, but our region is one that can accumulate some big falls in these situations as winds come ashore and are forced to rise over the mountains, so it’s worth being aware that we could see some river rises in the next few days. I’ll post again tomorrow with an update.

Trough and possible East Coast Low

Looking increasingly likely that significant areas of the east coast will see some large rain totals next week. A trough will deepen along the coast in response to increasingly cold air up high and very warm ocean temperatures. Current ocean temperatures off our coast are up around 26C:

A cold pool will develop, likely just to our north. This cold pool will bring strong instability as well as drawing winds up high from off the ocean:

There is the chance the trough developing along the coast might even deepen enough to support the formation of an east coast low:

If an east coast low does develop, areas to the south will see some significant impacts. The details are all up in the air right now – but coming into focus with the potential for a significant east coast rain event. Average forecast totals over the next 8 days are very much on the rise:

So what will happen? It’s like putting a pan of water onto boil and trying to forecast where the first bubble will appear on the bottom of the pan – we know it is going to happen, just not sure where. All we know now is that the conditions are conducive to a big rain event, we are a region that is prone to catching some bigger falls in these situations – and there will likely be some BIG falls out there, likely not far from us.

So the details? A chance of a storm this arvo as the instability increases. Overnight the storms die out and showers start developing off the coast, with some likely to move ashore. This is the start of the event. Those showers and rain periods will then be in play for likely the next week. As the event develops we’ll have a better idea of where is likely to see the bigger rains, and I’ll keep posting as it becomes clearer. There is no guarantee we’ll see anything huge, but the chance is there so it’s worth considering what you would need to do (if anything!) if the rivers start to rise.

Still looking wetter…for some…

After some disagreement all models are tonight showing the potential for some big fall somewhere along the east coast. Nice one EC for being the first model to pick the upcoming event. A pool of colder upper air is forecast to develop close to us early next week. You can see the yellow circle across our region on this upper temperature chart:

Once you combine cold temperatures up high with our very warm ocean temperatures and onshore winds, it is a pretty good bet that someone is going to get very wet. Sit to the north of the surface feature and you’ll likely see westerly winds and little rain…sit to the south and you’ll see easterly winds and flooding rains. And right now it is almost impossible to say exactly who will see what. Here is the current thinking from three model runs:

The ECMWF (European) Model:

ย The GFS (American) model:

The ACCESS (Australian) model:

All have a heap of rain falling but with a focus on different areas. I won’t post all upcoming model runs, but once things settle down and we have more information on likely impacts, if any, for our region I’ll post another update ๐Ÿ™‚

Getting Wetter

Still looking like we are on track for a wetter change this week. Winds should be turning onshore through today, with showers moving in from later on today. Different totals from different models right now, with the European model giving the highest totals (over the next 10 days):

Before we panic…the American model is, for once, showing more restraint:

At times like this what you usually end up with is something in between. Either way after the recent dry spell the rain will be welcome – good to get some decent falls in before we head into winter. Onshore winds, some showers and more cloud means that the temperatures will be taking a bit of a dive, with tops heading more for the lower 20s. Whether we see enough rain to cause any river rises is up in the air for now (haha ๐Ÿ™‚ ) – I’ll post more on that as it becomes clearer. Whatever happens the rain will be falling over a good number of days, giving it time to soak in rather than all run off which is good news. Enjoy the change!