Chance of storms then cooler

We’ve got a warm day today, with temps heading up towards 30C:

Once again this is ahead of a cool change which will move through overnight. That change moving up will likely trigger some storms over the ranges to our west through this afternoon. Those storms will then move south east towards the coast. We’re at the edge of the risk area with most storms likely to our south and west, but still a chance we’ll see something kick off. Storm forecast for today like this – you can see how close to the edge we sit with storms much more likely inland and to our south:

After that change moves through tomorrow looks a LOT cooler with the chance of showers – a completely different day to today. Here’s forecast max temps for tomorrow afternoon:

Once we move through tomorrow we’ve got another few drier and sunnier days coming up again, though this time we’re unlikely to see so much of the warmer weather before the next change moves through on Monday. That next change will combine with some decent cold air up high to increase instability and the chance of showers and storms. Total forecast rain over the next 8 days looks like this:

…however some models are showing totals higher than those shown here. With the cold air up high the potential for higher rain totals and a more dynamic surface pattern are certainly there – I’ll post more over the weekend.  Beyond that it looks like a similar pattern ahead – changes coming through but with the ongoing risk of showers and storms, so dry at times but by no means dry right though.

Lots to talk about…

There is a lot happening in the weather world at the moment so going to post here as we can mix images and posts…

We’ve had some good rain over the last couple of weeks – and now with temperatures climbing and the sun shining everything is starting to grow quickly. This image shows how much of our usual September total NSW has received so far:

Only a third of the way into the month but already over our total September average…

The rain so far could be good news – there is still the chance of an El Nino forming…and we have also got the Antarctic Oscillation likely to head back into the negatives over the next couple of weeks:

The AAO is a rough measure of how far north or south winter weather systems and high pressure systems sit. Through August the AAO sat in the negative, and we had bush fires and dry weather as a result. It then turned strongly positive in early September and we saw some really good rains as a result. The AAO is very hard to predict but right now it looks like it could head back into the negative again later this month – which increases the chance (but no guarantee) of drier weather once again. The recent rains should help alleviate the impact of a drier spell – it will take some time before fire risks increase again.

Looking over the next week we should see a lot of dry weather across our region with just a few showers or storms, more likely on the hills. Here’s the forecast rainfall from a couple of the top models through this weekend:

Forecast rain from the ECMWF model
Forecast rain from the German model

With Spring now well established drier weather means it will warm up quickly. Each day from now through Saturday will be warmer than the one before…so by the time we hit the weekend we’ll likely be in the low 30s:

Forecast Maximum Temps Saturday

All pretty usual Spring like weather coming up for us….but right now the Northern Hemisphere tropics are in overdrive. There are numerous significant storms around – including Florence which is likely to hit the US later this week. Here’s the (beautiful but scary) current view of the tropical Atlantic:

…and here is the forecast rainfall across parts of the east coast of the USA over the next 10 days – if this comes off they will be facing some devastating flooding:

That’ll do for now – I’ll come back with an update in the next few days. I’ll be retweeting the most interesting posts on Florence on the Bello Weather twitter feed if you want to keep up with what is happening on the other side of the world, otherwise look forward to sharing more local weather news with you soon!