Ouch! Drier and Hotter than normal forecast for Winter

The latest BoM winter forecast has just come out – and it is looking much drier and warmer than normal across much of SE Australia. Four images below tell the story:

Rainfall Forecast:

Maximum Temperature (likelihood of the maximum daytime temperature being above normal):

Minimum Temperature (likelihood of the minimum nighttime temperature being above normal):

You can see how much drier than normal it has been so far in 2018 in this rainfall percentage map from the BoM:

We should still see some rain through winter – we’re not looking at dry-right-through weather. We’re also lucky to be located close to the ocean – this means we are likely to still see some showers or periods of rain when a change comes through and the stars align. There is also always a decent chance of a winter East Coast Low (which can wipe out anomalies overnight) – but overall there is a greater than normal chance of dry over the three months of winter. Now let’s see what happens.

Warm today, cooler tomorrow

A beautiful start to the day today – and likely to remain pretty awesome right through the weekend. We’ve got a cold front moving across today -you can see it in the latest satellite image below, courtesy of bsch.com.au:

That front is drawing warm north westerly winds ahead of it, and we’ll see some parts of NE NSW come close to 30C today. Not bad for the last month of Autumn (and did you know the sun starts getting stronger again from next month!) Here’s the forecast 1pm temps for today:

As that front moves through there is a chance of the odd storm – here’re the storm forecast for 4pm today:

If we do get a storm there’s a chance of hail and strong winds, but any storms will be hit and miss. A lot cooler tomorrow for the show once the change has come through. 1pm temps for tomorrow:

Something else to come from that change – the humidity levels are going to drop through the floor – here’s the forecast dew points for tomorrow – looking very low:

And with the rain next week? Right now nobody can tell what will happen. We’ll have a combination of warm and wet onsh0re winds meeting up with a cooling upper atmosphere. Some models show a heap of rain, others show it all to see, and one even has some snow the central tablelands…I’ll post again when we have some better ideas of what will happen. In the meantime enjoy the remnants of summer today 🙂

Getting Wetter?

First hints of some wetter weather possible next week with onshore winds coming in off a warm ocean. What sort of totals? Way too early to have any idea. As is usual at this time frame some models showing heaps while others show very little. A couple of options in the images below – BUT take the totals with a pinch of salt, likely to change a lot over the next few days as the models get a handle on what is likely to happen – we could see nothing, we could see heaps.

First image from the latest US model run:

This is from the Australian model this morning:

But the latest European run doesn’t think much of it:

If this event does come off it we are more likely to see rain and showers move inland, unlike the offshore thunderfest a few weeks back. Once it becomes clearer I’ll post again 

Looking warmer and drier to start May

Welcome to May! Some beautiful weather coming up (unless you’re looking for cold and wet) – lots of sunshine and not much rain around over the next week. The BoM Climate Outlook for May is out and the first image is worth checking out. The chance of exceeding regular max temps across this month for NE NSW:

The scale is maxed out right across our region, so looks like Autumn could be hanging on for some time to come. Second image shows total forecast rainfall over the next 10 days – not much coming up: