Rain coming!

Three charts for you that show forecast rain totals for next week from the onshore shower stream likely (and if reading this on Facebook you’ll need to click the link to see them all πŸ™‚ ):

Latest Run:

Previous model run:

And the one before that:

So what can we tell from these runs?

(1) as per the post yesterday we’re looking at some onshore showers and perhaps even longer periods of rain through the middle of next week.
(2) It looks like there could be some decent totals around
(3) Exactly where will see the bigger totals is still up in the air but is likely to be somewhere on the Mid North Coast.

Still a decent time off for this upcoming event and with 4 model runs per day we’ll likely see another 12 to 14 different outcomes before the rain arrives – but as the event gets closer we should see the totals and location start to settle down. So, right now it’s a good time for the heads up that after the heat next week there is a good chance of some decent showers and potentially decent rain totals next week…but right now still too early to know if we’ll see the big totals or not. I’ll keep watching the model runs and once things settle down I’ll post again with an update πŸ™‚

Hot this weekend, showers next week?

Despite the clickbait hype on some weather pages the cyclone did, as expected, head off away from Australia. Not much impact for us at all (though if you looked hard to the east yesterday you could just see the upper cloud from the system).

Coming up we’ve got some beautiful Autumn weather and it may even get a little hot at times. Here’s for the forecast temps for Sunday by way of example:

Mainly dry too over the next few days, but by the time we head into the middle of next week we could see the winds coming in from the east once again with temperatures dropping and stream showers coming onshore. That is sometime off right now and heaps of time for it to change, but right now looking pretty similar to this through the middle of next week…you can see the showers streaming in (and a predicted significant cyclone off the west coast):

Should this pattern come off we could see some reasonable totals accumulating over a few days with local river rises possible…though way too far off for any concerns at this time. The chart shows total accumulated rainfall (and also shows the currently forecast path of the west coast cyclone):

So right now it’s time to enjoy what could be one of the last blasts of summer this weekend, and look forward to the chance of more showers next week πŸ™‚

Is it going to rain?

It was hot and steamy yesterday, with thunder rolling around during the afternoon (though much of it seemed to miss the valley again). Starting the day today with a heap of cloud and much cooler temperatures. There is a lot of instability around but with warm oceans and a cooler landmass most of the shower activity is out in the ocean right now:

That matches what the models are showing for this time of day as well. I always try to check what the modelsΒ  had forecast against what is happening – if the forecast to that time is pretty much on the mark then we can place more confidence in what they are forecasting is coming up. Looking at the model forecast for right now…

…and it is pretty much on the mark. That model (and a couple of other key models) is forecasting some rain and showers through the day today with those showers and storms likely to increase in intensity through tonight and tomorrow as some colder air moves through overhead:

As with all showers and storms some areas (as yesterday) will see some good totals while others see much less. Let’s hope we are in the firing line this time.

Looking further ahead it looks like getting a little drier for the rest of this week with just a few showers from time to time…but then the following week is showing some signs of something potentially coming together in the Coral Sea, as well as wetter weather for us. A long way off and this season has been one where the models have let us down with long term (week to two week) rain forecasts, so I’ll keep an eye on it and post again when we have more clarity.

Showers are coming!

We’ve got showers and perhaps storms incoming over the next few days, with winds turning onshore as a trough moves closer. Ocean temperatures are pretty steamy out there at the moment:

Temps over 27C along the coast – there is a LOT of energy out there. Great to swim in, but great rain producers as well. So good that even without perfect atmospheric conditions we can still get good falls. Onshore winds and a nearby trough look like producing some decent totals for us. Here is the 4 day forecast from one model (all models show some decent totals, but as is the case with showers they differ as to who will see the biggest falls):

You can see totals around 100mm forecast for the valleys and over the ranges. Don’t take the totals as gospel – inevitably in these situations some will likely see more while other locations could see considerably less. When the rain does fall however it could come down pretty hard so flash flooding is a concern. Once we get through the next four days we’ll see showers continue but decrease in intensity. Here’s the 4 to 8 day total:

You can see more showers along the coast. With the winds likely to swing more southerly the biggest falls will sit along the coast rather than inland over the hills. The winds and cloud will keep temps down a little…though with such warm oceans it will remain fairly humid, though still fresher than recently πŸ™‚

Model images with thanks to Weatherzone and BSCH.

Storms Inland then shower…

So what is coming up weather wise? Well after a hot day yesterday it is, as expected, much cooler today. We’ve got a heap of cloud near the coast but inland they started the day less cloudy so have warned up quickly with storms now forming. There is a trough sitting from NW Qld into NE NSW – and you can see the storms forecast to form along it this afternoon:

You can see it stays drier close to the coast despite the cloud. Tomorrow is looking fairly similar, but storms start becoming more extensive as the trough deepens. We could see a storm or two closer to our region through the afternoon:

By the time we hit Sunday the trough has moved closer to the coast and we’ll likely see much more in the way of showers and storms as we head through the afternoon and into the evening:

Those showers and storms will likely continue overnight as winds turn more onshore once again. By the time we hit Monday morning there will be showers over the ocean, likely moving inland through the day. Could see some reasonable totals if you catch some of the beefier showers:

Beyond that time winds will swing south to south-easterly and bring more showers as we head through the middle of the week. Some models bring us some decent totals while others are much more conservative – I’ll update on totals as things become clear, but right now it looks wetter, but no flooding rains looking that likely. Could still see some decent totals, getting perhaps close to 100mm over the next week for some of us, higher possible for the usual locations:

Staying cooler with winds coming from the south east – no more heatwaves over the next week or so πŸ™‚ Images all (c) BoM.