That wetter spell looks like it is still creeping up on us…but before that we’ve got some heat. Today kicks off the heat with hotter air being drawn across our region from inland. 1pm temps today look like this:
Getting hotter again tomorrow with temps in the mid 30s likely across our region:
But then we start to see what could be quite a significant change as a change moves up and winds turn from westerly to easterly. Storms will kick off over the hills through Saturday, though likely missing the coast:
As winds continue to turn onshore it is looking increasingly wet as we head into Sunday:
It then looks like it could remain wet at times through next week with onshore winds pumping showers and potentially some longer spells of rain onto the coast of NE NSW and SE QLD. Overall totals are up the air and are likely to change considerably depending on subtle features moving in from the ocean, but the BoM WATL map offers some ideas – you can see the real focus over NE NSW with totals over 100mm possible:
Flooding? We’ve been sitting with lower rainfall totals right through the summer but as we head into a wetter spell it’s worth keeping an eye on the forecasts and posts – we live in one of the most flood-prone regions of NSW and there is the potential for some river rises.
All around us yesterday. Sure many of you heard the storms rolling down the dividing range between Dorrigo and Coffs. They brought a very decent 75mm to Bonville yesterday. There was also a good storm that moved through to the south of town through the day yesterday, then more following up last night. 15mm in town over the last 24 hours which is a start…
Today we’re looking at a southerly change moving up from the south through the middle of the day. This will likely generate some showers as it moves through and clears out the really humid conditions. 2pm winds below – you can see the southerly roaring up the coast:
The humidity levels will drop with the change – you can see the lower humidity levels to the south moving north with the change in this 2pm chart:
Once the change moves through it will dry up. Not much more in the way of significant rain likely this working week once todays change has moved through…but as I posted about over the weekend there are signs of a wetter spell coming up in the not too distant future. I’ll post more on that as we get closer. In the meantime enjoy the cooler change when it arrives!
Great animation from above this morning:
You can see the early cloud clearing quickly from the coastal plains, before the lumpy clouds start forming inland as the day heats up. Already into the 30s out there and going to keep on climbing for some time. Blue skies and pretty dry out there right now:
But come 1pm the temps are really climbing and that will send the seabreeze heading inland towards the hills. It’s pretty humid (OK, really humid) out there so as the seabreeze starts moving inland check out what happens to the winds – this is the 4pm chart:
Winds forecast to come in from all directions and converge over our region. The wind cannot go down into the earth, it can only go up…and when it contains as much water as it does today then storms are a good chance this arvo. Forecast rainfall to 4pm today looks a little different to the 10am chart:
You can see the rain forecast to fall up and down the coast, with a focus where those winds are forecast to converge. These are storms so some areas will see some and others miss out…but today is a pretty decent chance of seeing some decent rain rates under any storms that do form.
Looking like showers again tomorrow before the change moves through and the weather dries up again. Going to cool down some though, which has to be a good thing!
Finally looking like we could be seeing some wetter weather coming up – and that is certainly the case across far NE NSW over the next 3 days with flood watches in place for some locations. Here’s the 3 day rainfall outlook until late Saturday:
You can see big falls likely up around the border, but much lower totals likely for us. However there is another change moving up the coast through Sunday. That change will hook into the much wetter and more humid air across NSW and increase rain for us all. By the end of Sunday it’s looking like this:
Not much increase in the totals across the far NE of the state, but look how much our totals have increased – some more good falls looking likely for us as we move through the latter half of the weekend. Great follow up rains!
That’s likely not the end of the story though…that change moving up through Sunday will clear the rain out for a few days…but then it looks like the wetter pattern could return. Latest modelling shows these totals over the next couple of weeks. It’s worth bearing in mind that modelling at that time frame is challenging for all models, and that totals shown below include the rain detailed in the images above…but still looks like we could see some decent totals over the next fortnight:
No big temperatures likely over the next couple of weeks, but definitely humid at times. Still a lot warmer than over in Western Europe. Here’s the forecast snow accumulations over the next 10 days for England:
Could see some big snow over there over the next week or so. The culprit is a Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event that has raised temperatures over the North Pole massively, and sent all the cold down across Europe. Some very low temperatures likely there with significant snow likely. At the same time the warm temps across the Pole will likely add to the record low sea ice in the region.
I’ll post more about the upcoming rain over the coming days. In the meantime it’s already falling heavily across SE Qld – look forward to seeing more down here soon!
We’re going to be slowly leaving summer behind us soon, and heading into a slightly cooler Autumn. Still hot here for now though – and spare a thought for everyone in Western Europe – going to get very cold and snowy there over the next week. The video below shows how much above / below normal temperatures are likely to get:
Back closer to home we’re likely to see some rain tomorrow as a change moves up the coast. Likely to be fairly showery in nature so we could see a heap, or we could see much of it move to our north once again. Best chance in some time of decent rain though…get ready for it to green up again!
Forecast rain over the next week:
By no means certain we’ll see that much, but the increased rain on the chart does highlight that models are *starting* to see a potential change in the patterns, with increased rainfall looking more likely over coming weeks. Now a waiting game, with fingers crossed…
Looking pretty dry out there at the moment. This map from the BoM shows how dry it is across much of NSW (green is wet, red is dry, black is very dry) – pretty unusual for mid February:
But some relief across our local area could be on its way with a change moving up the coast tomorrow:
Fingers crossed we get the showers – really need it right now. Beyond tomorrow drying up again as the rain moves to our north. Looking like the next change of some rain will be later on over next weekend, but at this stage totals looking lower than tomorrow. The good news is that the change tomorrow will bring some lower temperatures through the remainder of the week, though likely warming up again as we head into the weekend.
Warming up out there with the temp already over 30C…But the difference today is an increased chance of showers and storms this arvo. Looking at this stage that most of the activity will be just to our North and heading towards Grafton. Again this is a repeating pattern of the season. Forecast rain for this arvo looking like this:
And the storm forecast for 1pm today looking like this:
Going to be hot again…for a change…Forecast top temps for the day:
Beyond today we’ve got a large cyclone heading south between Aus and NZ. That will likely generate some decent surf as we head through the weekend, though the main focus will be to our east:
Beyond that…looking a little cooler next week with the chance of a few showers. No big rains looking likely, but anything cooler than this week has to be a good thing!
Worth checking this graph out – as hot as you’ll likely see overnight. The temp did not drop below 25C, and with the humidity the apparent temp was over 30C all night:
Crazy hot and temps already climbing quickly out there. 8.20am and the apparent temp is already sitting here:
Forecast actual temperatures for 1pm today:
Likely to be a little cooler tomorrow, though not the cold change we would all love to see with temps still likely to hit the 30s through the day, similar Friday. Keep cool out there!
A very humid start to Tuesday, with a feel-like temp already over 30C despite the cloud. Here’s the dew point for 7am this morning (dew point is the temp at which dew would form as the air reaches 100% humidity – so the higher the total the wetter the air – in these charts the redder the colour the more humidity – dew point in the 20s close to the coast):
Going to feel hot and sticky today, with a decent chance of a shower or storm through the day. There were actually a decent number of storms overnight – check out this map of lightning strikes and you can see how much activity there was to our north yesterday (orange) and overnight (red):
Coming up we’ve got a strong westerly blast tomorrow. The down side? The temps will be even higher…but the upside – away from the coastal strip the humidity levels should be much lower. Here’s the 1pm forecast dewpoint for Wednesday:
You can see how the higher humidity levels are kept right on the coastal strip. Going to be HOT though – here’s the forecast temps for 1pm:
Those westerly winds however will bring a day of Very High to Severe fire danger across much of eastern NSW. Here’s the preliminary forecast for tomorrow – shaping up to be a bad fire day:
A little cooler for Thursday, though not the real cool change we’d love to see. Looking further ahead there are signs of another heatwave in the 7 to 14 day period…
Images thanks once again to BSCH and Landgate.
Some images to tell a story…With more cloud cover it was cooler today:
Looking much warmer for tomorrow (Tuesday):
Wednesday is looking really hot:
The big difference between today and Wednesday is the dew point – how humid it is. Close to the coast a sea breeze will likely keep humidity levels up, but you won’t need to go far inland, likely only to the valleys, perhaps Dorrigo, to see the westerly winds push through and lower dew points dramatically. Compare the two images below – dew point for today (left) and for Wednesday (right):
Combine the high temperatures, westerly winds and low humidity levels and we will likely see raised fire danger levels through the day. What we need is some rain…image below shows total forecast between now and Wednesday:
Not much, though any rain we do see will likely come from storms. Focus on the hills once again, though a chance tomorrow that we will see more in the way of showers and storms make it closer to the coast. Fingers crossed!
The good news? Thursday is looking much cooler 🙂